{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32cef503-4dca-4763-85c7-9928ab7acba8", "symbol": "META", "name": "Meta Platforms, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.514, "architecture_energy": 22.333, "architecture_maturity": 8.693, "architecture_confidence": 84.111, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.54, "rotation_up": 21.3, "upward_expansion": 6.04, "deceleration": 43.06, "rotation_down": 43.65, "downward_expansion": 70.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 517.57332, 520.565038, 522.968744, 526.067681 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 515.299988, "trend_reference": 533.249017, "distance_from_trend": -0.03366, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 499.465858, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.031702, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.517246, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.075649, "excess_performance": -0.249896, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03366, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017671, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.031702, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048889, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.255172, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003976, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.075649, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.906096, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1147, "relative_activity": 0.893094, "balance": 0.906096, "dry_up": 1.43658, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075086, "annualized_volatility": 0.472784, "from_high_reference": -0.238149, "from_low_reference": 0.128188 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 533.249017, "fair_value_reference": 499.465858, "structural_low": 456.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014431, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034955, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.085619, "worst_return": -0.318119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.073957, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.112457, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.17863, "worst_return": -0.410703, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.075649, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.249896, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.507487, "worst_return": -0.409026, "sufficient": false 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159506, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004975, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.216081, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057257, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.170507, "energy": 22.696961, "activity_lines": [ 545.339988, 531.611919, 529.010288, 531.582645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 471.399994, "volume": 1951, "typical_volume": 1267.3, "trend": 534.777979, "fair_value": 497.909433, "relative_strength": -30.589946, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.460746, "energy": 26.089451, "activity_lines": [ 523.606655, 521.609991, 523.700766, 527.324325 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 515.299988, "volume": 1147, "typical_volume": 1284.3, "trend": 533.249017, "fair_value": 499.465858, "relative_strength": -25.517246, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.514092, "energy": 22.332713, "activity_lines": [ 517.57332, 520.565038, 522.968744, 526.067681 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }