{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32d492c9-990d-48b0-a525-77d3baed897f", "symbol": "600161", "name": "Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.018, "architecture_energy": 33.792, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.314, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.21, "rotation_up": 27.45, "upward_expansion": 17.65, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 30.99, "downward_expansion": 62.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.459371, 12.327209, 12.803555, 13.448444 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.49, "trend_reference": 14.382533, "distance_from_trend": -0.131586, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.932241, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.373377, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.361255, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.24985, "excess_performance": -0.206646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.131586, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103333, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.373377, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067375, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223613, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045636, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.24985, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.536025, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71175078, "relative_activity": 1.462397, "balance": 0.536025, "dry_up": 1.694626, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068503, "annualized_volatility": 0.237201, "from_high_reference": -0.429887, "from_low_reference": 0.100043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.382533, "fair_value_reference": 19.932241, "structural_low": 11.354106, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.045345, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.020442, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 0.113943, "worst_return": -0.194769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.086207, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.092931, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.205235, "worst_return": -0.259893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.153129, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.127058, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.211044, "worst_return": -0.287251, "sufficient": 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"energy": 68.44073, "activity_lines": [ 12.017527, 12.445544, 13.312328, 14.02977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.469598, "volume": 105791867, "typical_volume": 44535545.4, "trend": 14.785533, "fair_value": 20.093783, "relative_strength": -21.485533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.20325, "energy": 64.428763, "activity_lines": [ 12.126966, 12.374445, 13.159402, 13.872031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.05, "volume": 87223845, "typical_volume": 45705241.0, "trend": 14.6392, "fair_value": 20.036179, "relative_strength": -24.286367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.137416, "energy": 57.893623, "activity_lines": [ 12.123233, 12.261245, 12.984802, 13.695545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.83, "volume": 65719941, "typical_volume": 47013942.55, "trend": 14.510867, "fair_value": 19.983465, "relative_strength": -18.930379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.713517, "energy": 42.223874, "activity_lines": [ 12.396833, 12.321318, 12.902726, 13.578823 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.49, "volume": 71175078, "typical_volume": 48670147.45, "trend": 14.382533, "fair_value": 19.932241, "relative_strength": -22.361255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.018496, "energy": 33.79225, "activity_lines": [ 12.459371, 12.327209, 12.803555, 13.448444 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }