{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32d69768-96ea-4f45-bec6-a8bd693eadfc", "symbol": "FOUR", "name": "Shift4 Payments, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.664, "architecture_energy": 17.646, "architecture_maturity": 34.316, "architecture_confidence": 70.216, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.42, "rotation_up": 29.84, "upward_expansion": 25.93, "deceleration": 33.89, "rotation_down": 33.98, "downward_expansion": 52.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 826.391341, 829.858549, 801.902241, 807.252561 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 709.650024, "trend_reference": 845.333333, "distance_from_trend": -0.160509, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1352.787433, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.475416, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.513833, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.293177, "excess_performance": -0.238511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160509, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145551, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.475416, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005714, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.365138, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146508, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.293177, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.303515, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5199, "relative_activity": 2.365117, "balance": 0.303515, "dry_up": 1.106246, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134983, "annualized_volatility": 0.812744, "from_high_reference": -0.581821, "from_low_reference": 0.086953 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 845.333333, "fair_value_reference": 1352.787433, "structural_low": 652.880005, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.188854, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.214944, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.188854, "worst_return": -0.188854, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.2695, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.339742, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.2695, "worst_return": -0.2695, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.396569, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.563884, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.396569, "worst_return": -0.396569, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.537864, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.712838, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.537864, "worst_return": -0.537864, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00698, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130676, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034473, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065522, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007071, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.459756, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.151136, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 927.599976, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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860.659998, "fair_value": 1355.033266, "relative_strength": -19.401219, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.664115, "energy": 47.562687, "activity_lines": [ 886.215999, 848.060727, 810.098714, 816.99514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 709.650024, "volume": 5199, "typical_volume": 2198.2, "trend": 845.333333, "fair_value": 1352.787433, "relative_strength": -36.513833, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.663794, "energy": 17.645614, "activity_lines": [ 826.391341, 829.858549, 801.902241, 807.252561 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }