{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32d9e82e-58f4-41d6-9018-15b439965ce7", "symbol": "002209", "name": "Guangzhou Tech-Long Packaging Machinery Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.484, "architecture_energy": 58.855, "architecture_maturity": 72.27, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 28.66, "upward_expansion": 11.23, "deceleration": 59.6, "rotation_down": 51.58, "downward_expansion": 84.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.474667, 10.56128, 11.643145, 12.646846 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.98, "trend_reference": 13.898476, "distance_from_trend": -0.209985, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.355823, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.033095, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.536124, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.299298, "excess_performance": -0.306698, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.209985, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093696, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.033095, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.346617, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275361, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074602, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.299298, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.440219, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16615150, "relative_activity": 0.632349, "balance": 0.440219, "dry_up": 0.843429, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096088, "annualized_volatility": 0.432407, "from_high_reference": -0.405844, "from_low_reference": 0.168085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.898476, "fair_value_reference": 11.355823, 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89.235765, "activity_lines": [ 10.622408, 11.285428, 12.794513, 13.665399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.45, "volume": 27201220, "typical_volume": 27349933.95, "trend": 14.465809, "fair_value": 11.337986, "relative_strength": -30.673972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.866137, "energy": 83.03119, "activity_lines": [ 10.511106, 11.003887, 12.46954, 13.396164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.69, "volume": 24623931, "typical_volume": 26513773.7, "trend": 14.268809, "fair_value": 11.337459, "relative_strength": -35.124545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.814052, "energy": 69.371152, "activity_lines": [ 10.209333, 10.661576, 12.100805, 13.088047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.52, "volume": 20205060, "typical_volume": 26548636.7, "trend": 14.069809, "fair_value": 11.344031, "relative_strength": -27.698316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.440061, "energy": 64.181409, "activity_lines": [ 10.266, 10.545705, 11.839023, 12.846188 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.98, "volume": 16615150, "typical_volume": 26275294.2, "trend": 13.898476, "fair_value": 11.355823, "relative_strength": -27.536124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.483603, "energy": 58.855241, "activity_lines": [ 10.474667, 10.56128, 11.643145, 12.646846 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }