{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32e10972-b1ec-4bf1-a6a1-ef2faa09a040", "symbol": "XOVR", "name": "ERSHARES PRIVATE-PUBLIC CROSSOVER ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.787, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.309, "architecture_energy": 25.254, "architecture_maturity": 69.29, "architecture_confidence": 78.709, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.86, "rotation_up": 28.9, "upward_expansion": 58.25, "deceleration": 85.36, "rotation_down": 40.26, "downward_expansion": 21.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.340667, 19.682727, 19.582857, 19.151323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.13, "trend_reference": 18.746833, "distance_from_trend": 0.073781, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.8949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191484, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.562419, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.150943, "excess_performance": -0.03651, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073781, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00402, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191484, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033781, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095624, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090078, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150943, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.721414, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10283749, "relative_activity": 0.502934, "balance": 2.721414, "dry_up": 0.473757, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063949, "annualized_volatility": 0.266248, "from_high_reference": -0.075758, "from_low_reference": 0.229688 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.746833, "fair_value_reference": 16.8949, "structural_low": 16.37, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.010783, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.003575, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.100681, "worst_return": -0.111319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.018651, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.034965, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.175058, "worst_return": -0.140264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062999, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054787, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.183451, "worst_return": -0.255342, "sufficient": true }, { 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19.503714, 19.074462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.6, "volume": 8565583, "typical_volume": 20055825.6, "trend": 18.7465, "fair_value": 16.841563, "relative_strength": -12.565947, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.96615, "energy": 18.055083, "activity_lines": [ 19.182667, 19.634727, 19.473714, 19.062065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.13, "volume": 10283749, "typical_volume": 20447513.3, "trend": 18.746833, "fair_value": 16.8949, "relative_strength": -9.562419, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.3093, "energy": 25.254474, "activity_lines": [ 19.340667, 19.682727, 19.582857, 19.151323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }