{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32e57d6f-5600-4105-9404-c97a99ba39c9", "symbol": "TNIE", "name": "tonies SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.203, "architecture_energy": 34.275, "architecture_maturity": 66.496, "architecture_confidence": 56.911, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.34, "rotation_up": 37.14, "upward_expansion": 64.36, "deceleration": 68.29, "rotation_down": 25.55, "downward_expansion": 16.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.277333, 12.331636, 11.765714, 11.439656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.04, "trend_reference": 11.139, "distance_from_trend": 0.080887, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.331134, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.445181, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.269706, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086643, "excess_performance": -0.087604, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080887, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087793, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.445181, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153229, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002697, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018454, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086643, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.884485, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2262, "relative_activity": 2.577337, "balance": 1.884485, "dry_up": 1.043127, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065295, "annualized_volatility": 0.339993, "from_high_reference": -0.089259, "from_low_reference": 1.086655 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.139, "fair_value_reference": 8.331134, "structural_low": 9.69, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065987, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.090909, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109615, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072419, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 6.76, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 6.92, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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67.85768, "energy": 87.672603, "activity_lines": [ 12.553333, 11.998182, 11.30181, 11.111054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.8, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 786.4, "trend": 10.935, "fair_value": 8.200851, "relative_strength": 4.110169, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.773308, "energy": 66.740436, "activity_lines": [ 12.341333, 12.051636, 11.381857, 11.170731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.96, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 809.55, "trend": 11.037, "fair_value": 8.250947, "relative_strength": 11.90542, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.731046, "energy": 62.235097, "activity_lines": [ 12.498667, 12.284364, 11.571238, 11.301376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.24, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 764.55, "trend": 11.099667, "fair_value": 8.2925, "relative_strength": 5.061808, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.162959, "energy": 46.704586, "activity_lines": [ 12.417333, 12.341455, 11.681476, 11.378989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.04, "volume": 2262, "typical_volume": 877.65, "trend": 11.139, "fair_value": 8.331134, "relative_strength": -0.269706, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.202758, "energy": 34.274854, "activity_lines": [ 12.277333, 12.331636, 11.765714, 11.439656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }