{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32e64ad1-54d5-4c5c-8944-675350b7ba6c", "symbol": "SMH", "name": "VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.85, "architecture_energy": 27.268, "architecture_maturity": 75.157, "architecture_confidence": 95.288, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.45, "rotation_up": 19.95, "upward_expansion": 55.18, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 32.31, "downward_expansion": 21.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 92.679331, 95.85309, 93.334142, 86.721999 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 93.949997, "trend_reference": 78.164, "distance_from_trend": 0.20196, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.711731, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.055271, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 24.730539, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.581117, "excess_performance": 0.410226, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.20196, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.238876, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.055271, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11254, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.247305, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238803, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.581117, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.578905, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 587559, "relative_activity": 1.03235, "balance": 1.578905, "dry_up": 1.351682, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085749, "annualized_volatility": 0.373924, "from_high_reference": -0.131941, "from_low_reference": 1.331555 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.164, "fair_value_reference": 45.711731, "structural_low": 55.18, "invalidation": "A sustained 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"close": 94.519997, "volume": 533260, "typical_volume": 506376.0, "trend": 75.826666, "fair_value": 44.870128, "relative_strength": 32.726271, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.637008, "energy": 41.431822, "activity_lines": [ 96.230665, 98.222727, 92.05619, 84.796602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 88.68, "volume": 1122632, "typical_volume": 550139.0, "trend": 76.959666, "fair_value": 45.27, "relative_strength": 22.476593, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.82551, "energy": 27.404227, "activity_lines": [ 93.101999, 96.537454, 92.513381, 85.625849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.949997, "volume": 587559, "typical_volume": 569146.95, "trend": 78.164, "fair_value": 45.711731, "relative_strength": 24.730539, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.849906, "energy": 27.267976, "activity_lines": [ 92.679331, 95.85309, 93.334142, 86.721999 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }