{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32e7f0ca-b272-4446-b62e-3530452491ee", "symbol": "D2KN34", "name": "DraftKings Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.327, "architecture_energy": 34.463, "architecture_maturity": 24.173, "architecture_confidence": 68.138, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.89, "rotation_up": 12.51, "upward_expansion": 13.03, "deceleration": 53.74, "rotation_down": 63.48, "downward_expansion": 67.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.290667, 20.995273, 21.116714, 21.005978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.92, "trend_reference": 21.376333, "distance_from_trend": -0.068128, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.773974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.373072, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.722889, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.145064, "excess_performance": -0.088016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068128, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117495, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.373072, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047315, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.297229, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124327, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145064, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.052264, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 179, "relative_activity": 0.147017, "balance": 0.052264, "dry_up": 0.082748, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095884, "annualized_volatility": 0.655867, "from_high_reference": -0.542805, "from_low_reference": 0.111607 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.376333, "fair_value_reference": 31.773974, "structural_low": 17.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.073811, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.071023, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.249856, "worst_return": -0.264249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.107089, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.103544, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.233161, "worst_return": -0.070897, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.15, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.191264, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.524796, "worst_return": 0.121103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.744983, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.650115, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.34715, "worst_return": 0.142816, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036195, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142323, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090542, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009646, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.229014, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073104, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056659, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.251416, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087252, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122759, 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"direction": -44.009995, "energy": 36.005596, "activity_lines": [ 20.556, 20.09, 20.699429, 22.560538 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 20.92, "volume": 18778, "typical_volume": 7289.75, "trend": 24.413667, "fair_value": 31.847756, "relative_strength": -39.650435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.810561, "energy": 25.66503, "activity_lines": [ 20.831333, 20.248, 20.559809, 22.313032 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 21.23, "volume": 70, "typical_volume": 7279.5, "trend": 24.222333, "fair_value": 31.851795, "relative_strength": -37.133887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.004604, "energy": 28.048853, "activity_lines": [ 21.126, 20.468545, 20.50019, 22.107634 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 21.5, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 6666.7, "trend": 24.049667, "fair_value": 31.859359, "relative_strength": -33.773895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.634925, "energy": 22.323486, "activity_lines": [ 21.330667, 20.754909, 20.519762, 21.932 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 25.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5963.7, "trend": 24.035333, "fair_value": 31.895256, "relative_strength": -21.969188, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 23.937055, "energy": 32.384629, "activity_lines": [ 22.679333, 21.689455, 20.948095, 22.019118 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 21.98, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4385.15, "trend": 23.855, "fair_value": 31.906987, "relative_strength": -30.462304, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.088307, "energy": 22.220933, "activity_lines": [ 22.625333, 21.870364, 21.055095, 21.886516 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 20.459999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3244.7, "trend": 23.563667, "fair_value": 31.902756, "relative_strength": -35.921599, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.651203, "energy": 21.353278, "activity_lines": [ 22.043333, 21.744909, 21.026667, 21.667484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 22.459999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2037.95, "trend": 23.256, "fair_value": 31.907244, "relative_strength": -29.042289, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.357939, "energy": 15.174439, "activity_lines": [ 22.158666, 21.968545, 21.202238, 21.596279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.1, "volume": 614, "typical_volume": 2062.45, "trend": 22.954, "fair_value": 31.900128, "relative_strength": -27.24844, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.822973, "energy": 7.5682, "activity_lines": [ 22.405333, 22.237091, 21.422809, 21.586215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.82, "volume": 147, "typical_volume": 1786.55, "trend": 22.591667, "fair_value": 31.874103, "relative_strength": -31.546965, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.585523, "energy": 17.254967, "activity_lines": [ 21.785333, 22.019454, 21.407095, 21.448537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.02, "volume": 68, "typical_volume": 1216.75, "trend": 22.153667, "fair_value": 31.832564, "relative_strength": -36.224842, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.735599, "energy": 28.545649, "activity_lines": [ 20.870666, 21.486182, 21.217095, 21.218107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.74, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 1213.7, "trend": 21.794333, "fair_value": 31.8, "relative_strength": -30.509696, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.454849, "energy": 21.50158, "activity_lines": [ 20.726667, 21.313636, 21.204714, 21.126903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.92, "volume": 179, "typical_volume": 1217.55, "trend": 21.376333, "fair_value": 31.773974, "relative_strength": -29.722889, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.327467, "energy": 34.462783, "activity_lines": [ 20.290667, 20.995273, 21.116714, 21.005978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }