{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32ebcb44-9166-4369-94a6-359da7b3cbc7", "symbol": "SIX", "name": "Sprintex Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.44, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.501, "architecture_energy": 7.624, "architecture_maturity": 17.712, "architecture_confidence": 49.949, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.31, "rotation_up": 22.04, "upward_expansion": 24.19, "deceleration": 67.2, "rotation_down": 43.36, "downward_expansion": 28.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0706, 0.071982, 0.071024, 0.07069 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.07, "trend_reference": 0.071533, "distance_from_trend": -0.021435, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.047612, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.470212, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.320976, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.054054, "excess_performance": -0.11776, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021435, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034217, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.470212, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143233, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02321, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199354, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054054, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.115751, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1488403, "relative_activity": 1.400887, "balance": 0.115751, "dry_up": 1.00563, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125275, "annualized_volatility": 0.448181, "from_high_reference": -0.317073, "from_low_reference": 0.666667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.071533, "fair_value_reference": 0.047612, "structural_low": 0.05, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.210526, "directional_follow_through": 0.210526, "median_excess_return": -0.070946, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.483871, "worst_return": -0.358974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.081081, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.07883, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.193548, "worst_return": -0.395833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.148148, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.19289, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.36, "worst_return": -0.357143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.1375, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.058375, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.296296, "worst_return": -0.395833, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.227273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.4375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051724, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.092593, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.206897, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.383333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.026, "volume": 1928340, "typical_volume": 1082484.6, "trend": 0.037667, "fair_value": 0.063763, "relative_strength": -27.676693, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.809954, "energy": 24.117192, "activity_lines": [ 0.075133, 0.072073, 0.07101, 0.071092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.071, "volume": 477388, "typical_volume": 1067478.6, "trend": 0.072767, "fair_value": 0.047138, "relative_strength": 10.987846, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.221848, "energy": 23.194828, "activity_lines": [ 0.073667, 0.0722, 0.071095, 0.071002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.07, "volume": 552955, "typical_volume": 1025017.6, "trend": 0.072067, "fair_value": 0.047349, "relative_strength": 6.26715, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.20275, "energy": 3.753696, "activity_lines": [ 0.0718, 0.072091, 0.071067, 0.070824 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.07, "volume": 1488403, "typical_volume": 1062471.55, "trend": 0.071533, "fair_value": 0.047612, "relative_strength": 2.320976, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.501115, "energy": 7.624436, "activity_lines": [ 0.0706, 0.071982, 0.071024, 0.07069 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }