{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32f0d518-7f23-4357-80f4-7d50db650c50", "symbol": "EVT", "name": "Evotec SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.44, "architecture_energy": 89.151, "architecture_maturity": 64.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.378, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 10.69, "upward_expansion": 24.33, "deceleration": 34.17, "rotation_down": 81.81, "downward_expansion": 97.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.564533, 4.023473, 4.4488, 4.645951 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.5, "trend_reference": 5.0007, "distance_from_trend": -0.300098, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.050103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.613264, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.124539, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.429596, "excess_performance": -0.603843, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.300098, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071457, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.613264, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109533, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.481245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194511, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.429596, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.09265, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1329, "relative_activity": 0.168409, "balance": 0.09265, "dry_up": 3.618133, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126066, "annualized_volatility": 0.758849, "from_high_reference": -0.516975, "from_low_reference": 0.04979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.0007, "fair_value_reference": 9.050103, "structural_low": 3.334, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.000386, "positive_rate": 0.513514, "directional_follow_through": 0.486486, "median_excess_return": -0.02129, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.294705, "worst_return": -0.33579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.033278, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.109036, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.211003, "worst_return": -0.275962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.069437, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.236452, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.059053, "worst_return": -0.430611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.297932, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.373547, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.088433, "worst_return": -0.371624, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.456829, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180193, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032353, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.197585, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.32041, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.122777, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096506, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009415, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009513, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.195988, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007497, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089213, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.154794, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 20.309999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 31.5, "trend": 19.763, "fair_value": 27.352628, "relative_strength": 7.082073, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"trend": 5.1681, "fair_value": 9.291615, "relative_strength": -49.136306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.532886, "energy": 85.4364, "activity_lines": [ 4.082933, 4.433182, 4.688348, 4.861555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.424, "volume": 7122, "typical_volume": 7835.05, "trend": 5.097767, "fair_value": 9.167154, "relative_strength": -48.613884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.179018, "energy": 91.654706, "activity_lines": [ 3.761133, 4.205364, 4.563248, 4.749032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.5, "volume": 1329, "typical_volume": 7891.5, "trend": 5.0007, "fair_value": 9.050103, "relative_strength": -48.124539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.440128, "energy": 89.15107, "activity_lines": [ 3.564533, 4.023473, 4.4488, 4.645951 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }