{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32f4c834-c537-407c-99aa-9f695b7e5516", "symbol": "300118", "name": "Risen Energy Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.847, "architecture_energy": 83.217, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.349, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.16, "rotation_up": 14.25, "upward_expansion": 19.98, "deceleration": 38.37, "rotation_down": 74.18, "downward_expansion": 95.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.732, 10.489273, 12.521191, 14.021742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.29, "trend_reference": 15.894333, "distance_from_trend": -0.352599, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.611624, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.244028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.066146, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.483693, "excess_performance": -0.491093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.352599, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018909, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.244028, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.529593, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.280661, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.451504, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.483693, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.211564, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 223996717, "relative_activity": 1.00471, "balance": 0.211564, "dry_up": 0.830087, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147492, "annualized_volatility": 0.573476, "from_high_reference": -0.604078, "from_low_reference": 0.214876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.894333, "fair_value_reference": 13.611624, "structural_low": 8.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.034999, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": -0.014467, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.39116, "worst_return": -0.168333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.040306, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.060509, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.625346, "worst_return": -0.325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.055959, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.145733, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.309217, "worst_return": -0.331401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.16, "volume": 178323548, "typical_volume": 255075516.15, "trend": 16.387333, "fair_value": 13.887371, "relative_strength": -34.112688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.090336, "energy": 93.817945, "activity_lines": [ 10.762667, 12.052364, 14.039905, 15.299441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.09, "volume": 177356261, "typical_volume": 242872407.0, "trend": 16.247, "fair_value": 13.789784, "relative_strength": -34.583685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.611485, "energy": 91.242611, "activity_lines": [ 10.006, 11.274182, 13.434952, 14.828645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.49, "volume": 160584502, "typical_volume": 228187127.3, "trend": 16.04, "fair_value": 13.692415, "relative_strength": -30.374137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.173275, "energy": 88.087188, "activity_lines": [ 9.664, 10.741818, 12.915952, 14.39271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.29, "volume": 223996717, "typical_volume": 222946708.65, "trend": 15.894333, "fair_value": 13.611624, "relative_strength": -28.066146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.846886, "energy": 83.216663, "activity_lines": [ 9.732, 10.489273, 12.521191, 14.021742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }