{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32fb0b74-1425-4e71-a441-cfbd9ae73823", "symbol": "603315", "name": "Liaoning Fu-An Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.187, "architecture_energy": 84.364, "architecture_maturity": 23.83, "architecture_confidence": 86.412, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.28, "rotation_up": 8.39, "upward_expansion": 20.73, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 79.46, "downward_expansion": 96.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.68074, 12.826981, 14.517399, 15.026094 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.02, "trend_reference": 15.467266, "distance_from_trend": -0.222875, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.518715, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.039838, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.655292, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.238759, "excess_performance": -0.195555, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.222875, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021162, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.039838, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.581794, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186553, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.398639, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238759, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.33202, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31935337, "relative_activity": 0.490041, "balance": 0.33202, "dry_up": 0.576431, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14061, "annualized_volatility": 0.628022, "from_high_reference": -0.416505, "from_low_reference": 0.206827 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.467266, "fair_value_reference": 12.518715, "structural_low": 9.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.04, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.040761, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.157062, "worst_return": -0.125744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.087178, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.0688, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.306985, "worst_return": -0.245891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.099654, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.157155, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.072586, "worst_return": -0.336533, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 10.94, "volume": 36993200, "typical_volume": 67299198.8, "trend": 15.738266, "fair_value": 12.519246, "relative_strength": -24.126519, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.547157, "energy": 86.775276, "activity_lines": [ 12.31402, 13.865453, 15.243332, 15.529483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.5, "volume": 50770262, "typical_volume": 66040727.05, "trend": 15.584266, "fair_value": 12.517061, "relative_strength": -20.261262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.421613, "energy": 85.760613, "activity_lines": [ 11.791235, 13.251126, 14.844104, 15.256046 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.02, "volume": 31935337, "typical_volume": 65168683.7, "trend": 15.467266, "fair_value": 12.518715, "relative_strength": -18.655292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.187115, "energy": 84.363814, "activity_lines": [ 11.68074, 12.826981, 14.517399, 15.026094 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }