{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33028b81-02ee-4e64-8599-557bd9c212aa", "symbol": "SHAK", "name": "Shake Shack Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.164, "architecture_energy": 27.019, "architecture_maturity": 73.212, "architecture_confidence": 84.11, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.61, "rotation_up": 30.6, "upward_expansion": 25.09, "deceleration": 42.75, "rotation_down": 27.19, "downward_expansion": 61.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.503333, 60.841818, 64.332048, 70.44671 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 71.13, "trend_reference": 78.215667, "distance_from_trend": -0.090591, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 93.126154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.236197, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.52332, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.276399, "excess_performance": -0.402024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090591, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104626, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.236197, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019759, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.255233, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135477, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.276399, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.208061, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18183090, "relative_activity": 1.794195, "balance": 1.208061, "dry_up": 1.091819, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094939, "annualized_volatility": 0.731474, "from_high_reference": -0.357278, "from_low_reference": 0.378488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.215667, "fair_value_reference": 93.126154, "structural_low": 51.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.004486, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016843, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.294947, "worst_return": -0.165873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.026381, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.049717, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.570424, "worst_return": -0.417511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019169, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.129619, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.805915, "worst_return": -0.311503, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.313864, "energy": 54.460272, "activity_lines": [ 57.775333, 58.017636, 67.104048, 73.553355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.1, "volume": 8194730, "typical_volume": 9483020.9, "trend": 79.645, "fair_value": 93.262115, "relative_strength": -39.081017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.634053, "energy": 52.25049, "activity_lines": [ 57.540667, 57.726364, 65.401524, 72.041505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.75, "volume": 8597522, "typical_volume": 9530672.95, "trend": 78.954333, "fair_value": 93.158526, "relative_strength": -32.781595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.920745, "energy": 39.747859, "activity_lines": [ 59.321333, 58.522545, 64.41019, 70.951505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.13, "volume": 18183090, "typical_volume": 10134402.8, "trend": 78.215667, "fair_value": 93.126154, "relative_strength": -25.52332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.163652, "energy": 27.018833, "activity_lines": [ 63.503333, 60.841818, 64.332048, 70.44671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }