{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33055a68-70bb-420e-ae04-41514368fc8b", "symbol": "001213", "name": "China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.066, "architecture_energy": 43.658, "architecture_maturity": 94.607, "architecture_confidence": 95.078, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.41, "rotation_up": 27.61, "upward_expansion": 20.01, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 40.67, "downward_expansion": 70.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.528, 3.510398, 3.620954, 3.742238 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.52, "trend_reference": 3.889867, "distance_from_trend": -0.095085, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.033878, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.127391, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.55454, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.163895, "excess_performance": -0.171295, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095085, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05049, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.127391, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093092, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07095, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.163895, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.284639, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38551359, "relative_activity": 0.736308, "balance": 0.284639, "dry_up": 0.919967, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037772, "annualized_volatility": 0.136716, "from_high_reference": -0.190805, "from_low_reference": 0.04142 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.889867, "fair_value_reference": 4.033878, "structural_low": 3.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.011962, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.001211, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.074074, "worst_return": -0.093264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019465, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.023536, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.079208, "worst_return": -0.12401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012472, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066853, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.076475, "worst_return": -0.136253, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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-67.906435, "energy": 84.226516, "activity_lines": [ 3.483072, 3.53822, 3.702373, 3.819588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.47, "volume": 59720211, "typical_volume": 60021445.05, "trend": 3.924867, "fair_value": 4.043181, "relative_strength": -15.068016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.401241, "energy": 65.340307, "activity_lines": [ 3.483333, 3.511999, 3.666202, 3.788844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.59, "volume": 38065364, "typical_volume": 55538030.8, "trend": 3.907534, "fair_value": 4.038816, "relative_strength": -10.062092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.342809, "energy": 52.623167, "activity_lines": [ 3.523333, 3.515448, 3.645173, 3.76724 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.52, "volume": 38551359, "typical_volume": 52357650.85, "trend": 3.889867, "fair_value": 4.033878, "relative_strength": -15.55454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.065767, "energy": 43.657931, "activity_lines": [ 3.528, 3.510398, 3.620954, 3.742238 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }