{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3308da5a-149a-40fa-8a88-c499d8d33704", "symbol": "KELLTONTEC", "name": "Kellton Tech Solutions Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.786, "architecture_energy": 72.368, "architecture_maturity": 84.388, "architecture_confidence": 81.864, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.64, "rotation_up": 9.72, "upward_expansion": 15.94, "deceleration": 37.23, "rotation_down": 75.01, "downward_expansion": 91.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.304667, 14.720909, 15.092333, 15.385914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.12, "trend_reference": 15.774, "distance_from_trend": -0.104856, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.975679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.357472, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.776711, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.097764, "excess_performance": -0.054054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104856, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080894, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.357472, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094613, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227767, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013807, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097764, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.055916, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5896815, "relative_activity": 0.576386, "balance": 1.055916, "dry_up": 0.706837, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064502, "annualized_volatility": 0.411957, "from_high_reference": -0.513941, "from_low_reference": 0.086154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.774, "fair_value_reference": 21.975679, "structural_low": 13.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.029102, "positive_rate": 0.344828, "directional_follow_through": 0.655172, "median_excess_return": -0.029562, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 0.218653, "worst_return": -0.208781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.052152, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.072191, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.253731, "worst_return": -0.248294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.181374, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.077321, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.902844, "worst_return": -0.235678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-19.437903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.659448, "energy": 28.401292, "activity_lines": [ 15.442, 15.529454, 15.561952, 15.85129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.81, "volume": 7512816, "typical_volume": 10562872.75, "trend": 16.189333, "fair_value": 22.018372, "relative_strength": -21.746737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.238147, "energy": 44.118427, "activity_lines": [ 15.236667, 15.388182, 15.467333, 15.754495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.09, "volume": 6543913, "typical_volume": 10356599.3, "trend": 16.036333, "fair_value": 22.004397, "relative_strength": -22.429761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.946028, "energy": 62.372199, "activity_lines": [ 14.820667, 15.140364, 15.324905, 15.619054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.18, "volume": 8972124, "typical_volume": 10347192.8, "trend": 15.877333, "fair_value": 21.989461, "relative_strength": -22.812316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.909681, "energy": 67.043084, "activity_lines": [ 14.532667, 14.926727, 15.205143, 15.49929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.12, "volume": 5896815, "typical_volume": 10230678.3, "trend": 15.774, "fair_value": 21.975679, "relative_strength": -22.776711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.785573, "energy": 72.368109, "activity_lines": [ 14.304667, 14.720909, 15.092333, 15.385914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }