{ "ticker": { "uuid": "330d0697-a239-4801-a81e-230757946631", "symbol": "CNTN", "name": "Canton Strategic Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.115, "architecture_energy": 78.227, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.251, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.25, "rotation_up": 10.0, "upward_expansion": 17.97, "deceleration": 37.22, "rotation_down": 79.24, "downward_expansion": 95.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.991333, 2.301455, 2.656452, 2.93928 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.87, "trend_reference": 3.291, "distance_from_trend": -0.431784, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.320804, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.818813, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -49.565589, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.548309, "excess_performance": -0.735763, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.431784, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029871, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.818813, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040045, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.495656, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.368855, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.548309, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.349452, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3496948, "relative_activity": 0.888465, "balance": 0.349452, "dry_up": 0.984121, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.325685, "annualized_volatility": 0.899712, "from_high_reference": -0.794053, "from_low_reference": 0.73068 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.291, "fair_value_reference": 10.320804, "structural_low": 1.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.098361, "positive_rate": 0.259259, "directional_follow_through": 0.740741, "median_excess_return": -0.112726, "regime_survival": 0.962963, "best_return": 0.326454, "worst_return": -0.863021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.376532, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.376143, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.495708, "worst_return": -0.91337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.410575, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.526968, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.167488, "worst_return": -0.959252, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 2.797333, 2.906, 3.085738, 3.289968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.3, "volume": 3248967, "typical_volume": 3743995.35, "trend": 3.391667, "fair_value": 12.743144, "relative_strength": -35.211323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.539048, "energy": 63.008716, "activity_lines": [ 2.588667, 2.775273, 2.987548, 3.219495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.94, "volume": 3900333, "typical_volume": 3786546.05, "trend": 3.37, "fair_value": 11.89308, "relative_strength": -44.504871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.48691, "energy": 75.031635, "activity_lines": [ 2.312667, 2.592182, 2.868262, 3.125839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.93, "volume": 4847530, "typical_volume": 3912626.55, "trend": 3.321667, "fair_value": 11.069875, "relative_strength": -45.207793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.459124, "energy": 78.137502, "activity_lines": [ 2.127333, 2.437818, 2.760119, 3.032935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.87, "volume": 3496948, "typical_volume": 3935945.1, "trend": 3.291, "fair_value": 10.320804, "relative_strength": -49.565589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.115243, "energy": 78.226764, "activity_lines": [ 1.991333, 2.301455, 2.656452, 2.93928 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }