{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33113e94-944f-4d82-90a4-37642a145dc0", "symbol": "IBTL", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS DEC 2031 TERM TREASURY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 49.833, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.398, "architecture_energy": 50.877, "architecture_maturity": 22.538, "architecture_confidence": 90.013, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.12, "rotation_up": 16.08, "upward_expansion": 9.92, "deceleration": 41.24, "rotation_down": 60.99, "downward_expansion": 85.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.966925, 20.000527, 20.038184, 20.086141 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.01, "trend_reference": 20.145559, "distance_from_trend": -0.006729, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.177787, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043395, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.255415, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.011959, "excess_performance": -0.199412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006729, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002709, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043395, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01585, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132554, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030916, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011959, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.508944, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1740863, "relative_activity": 1.990681, "balance": 1.508944, "dry_up": 1.279028, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007129, "annualized_volatility": 0.038608, "from_high_reference": -0.025923, "from_low_reference": 0.013736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.145559, "fair_value_reference": 19.177787, "structural_low": 19.864276, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003896, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.018718, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.046882, "worst_return": -0.024616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.03404, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01552, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.049141, "worst_return": -0.025721, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.038854, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.087748, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055551, "worst_return": 0.022156, "sufficient": false 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"fair_value": 19.164842, "relative_strength": -9.614989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.91743, "energy": 60.060182, "activity_lines": [ 19.956704, 20.003697, 20.045293, 20.095294 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.01, "volume": 1740863, "typical_volume": 874506.15, "trend": 20.145559, "fair_value": 19.177787, "relative_strength": -13.255415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.398455, "energy": 50.87706, "activity_lines": [ 19.966925, 20.000527, 20.038184, 20.086141 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }