{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33129253-c307-4000-afa9-1436bb300b36", "symbol": "601952", "name": "Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.457, "architecture_energy": 35.042, "architecture_maturity": 80.004, "architecture_confidence": 84.336, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.41, "rotation_up": 27.82, "upward_expansion": 19.12, "deceleration": 46.81, "rotation_down": 32.27, "downward_expansion": 66.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.114, 8.0045, 8.328011, 8.694076 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.24, "trend_reference": 9.069644, "distance_from_trend": -0.091475, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.500719, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.132697, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.970422, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.184158, "excess_performance": -0.140955, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091475, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042989, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.132697, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10797, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099704, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003397, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.184158, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.248849, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59612014, "relative_activity": 0.913162, "balance": 1.248849, "dry_up": 0.880849, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052952, "annualized_volatility": 0.279969, "from_high_reference": -0.264942, "from_low_reference": 0.113395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.069644, "fair_value_reference": 9.500719, "structural_low": 7.400791, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.010858, "positive_rate": 0.68, "directional_follow_through": 0.32, "median_excess_return": -0.000161, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.134783, "worst_return": -0.093415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.043799, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.001764, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.088198, "worst_return": -0.091423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001739, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.06183, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.144411, "worst_return": -0.100589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 7.97, "volume": 63623432, "typical_volume": 82067344.5, "trend": 9.171311, "fair_value": 9.562748, "relative_strength": -10.252341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.914405, "energy": 82.829912, "activity_lines": [ 7.790034, 7.973094, 8.562144, 8.884524 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.01, "volume": 60190002, "typical_volume": 74327779.4, "trend": 9.131644, "fair_value": 9.542675, "relative_strength": -10.505461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.614455, "energy": 62.3884, "activity_lines": [ 7.872667, 7.945681, 8.460528, 8.8096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.2, "volume": 46584733, "typical_volume": 67992432.65, "trend": 9.098977, "fair_value": 9.521899, "relative_strength": -8.357347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.162686, "energy": 46.006818, "activity_lines": [ 8.012, 7.96972, 8.386674, 8.749494 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.24, "volume": 59612014, "typical_volume": 65280850.1, "trend": 9.069644, "fair_value": 9.500719, "relative_strength": -9.970422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.456706, "energy": 35.041542, "activity_lines": [ 8.114, 8.0045, 8.328011, 8.694076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }