{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3314e878-dce4-4ffa-b913-6e9da575b3d3", "symbol": "TFCO4", "name": "Track & Field Co S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.715, "architecture_energy": 48.748, "architecture_maturity": 26.368, "architecture_confidence": 94.378, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.35, "rotation_up": 14.86, "upward_expansion": 9.31, "deceleration": 41.07, "rotation_down": 56.11, "downward_expansion": 80.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.476667, 14.662692, 14.874778, 15.143091 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.61, "trend_reference": 15.453827, "distance_from_trend": -0.054603, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.052288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.119344, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.987789, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.112951, "excess_performance": -0.055903, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054603, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033407, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.119344, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1093, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119878, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034943, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.112951, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.636179, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1881800, "relative_activity": 0.763168, "balance": 0.636179, "dry_up": 0.855553, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065132, "annualized_volatility": 0.263211, "from_high_reference": -0.20072, "from_low_reference": 0.064869 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.453827, "fair_value_reference": 13.052288, "structural_low": 13.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.002586, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.007657, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.255319, "worst_return": -0.09232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.024795, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.048226, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.355991, "worst_return": -0.168939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.056976, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.057385, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.087438, "worst_return": -0.095633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007264, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036044, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085904, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0422, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014257, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101321, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 2722875.0, "trend": 15.653091, "fair_value": 13.014586, "relative_strength": -13.481551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.270236, "energy": 20.082436, "activity_lines": [ 15.112229, 15.040569, 15.23598, 15.455965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.25, "volume": 1622000, "typical_volume": 2647990.0, "trend": 15.611161, "fair_value": 13.025814, "relative_strength": -16.063454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.063405, "energy": 33.990091, "activity_lines": [ 14.803859, 14.894924, 15.117044, 15.365443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.91, "volume": 3036600, "typical_volume": 2620915.0, "trend": 15.543707, "fair_value": 13.03316, "relative_strength": -17.807243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.28534, "energy": 58.3246, "activity_lines": [ 14.481652, 14.714234, 14.980559, 15.255691 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.69, "volume": 1898000, "typical_volume": 2483310.0, "trend": 15.501591, "fair_value": 13.04222, "relative_strength": -14.687193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.767364, "energy": 49.30402, "activity_lines": [ 14.471333, 14.69765, 14.928754, 15.200613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.61, "volume": 1881800, "typical_volume": 2465775.0, "trend": 15.453827, "fair_value": 13.052288, "relative_strength": -11.987789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.715371, "energy": 48.747854, "activity_lines": [ 14.476667, 14.662692, 14.874778, 15.143091 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }