{ "ticker": { "uuid": "331526e0-9e53-4c80-be37-1ab247b68179", "symbol": "INVE", "name": "Identiv Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.67, "architecture_energy": 70.618, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.845, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.99, "rotation_up": 13.12, "upward_expansion": 15.09, "deceleration": 39.82, "rotation_down": 74.69, "downward_expansion": 93.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.670667, 2.826182, 3.309524, 3.42729 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.58, "trend_reference": 3.484667, "distance_from_trend": -0.259614, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.509103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.427824, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.591869, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.238938, "excess_performance": -0.426392, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.259614, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043637, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.427824, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.479349, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.365919, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.567422, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238938, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.27413, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 954900, "relative_activity": 0.859328, "balance": 0.27413, "dry_up": 0.69205, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187412, "annualized_volatility": 0.876643, "from_high_reference": -0.513208, "from_low_reference": 0.061728 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.484667, "fair_value_reference": 4.509103, "structural_low": 2.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.02057, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.003092, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.383446, "worst_return": -0.28707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.010883, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066919, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.516224, "worst_return": -0.266414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.197018, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.283059, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.151899, "worst_return": -0.418056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046377, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.121622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014837, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082596, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.538606, "energy": 58.171547, "activity_lines": [ 3.145333, 3.560364, 3.766857, 3.700301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.93, "volume": 1571198, "typical_volume": 1031675.1, "trend": 3.602333, "fair_value": 4.650641, "relative_strength": -30.577056, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.5103, "energy": 58.789846, "activity_lines": [ 2.984, 3.382, 3.690762, 3.655527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.8, "volume": 711917, "typical_volume": 1061430.4, "trend": 3.576, "fair_value": 4.615577, "relative_strength": -30.304657, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.104454, "energy": 65.910075, "activity_lines": [ 2.851333, 3.216909, 3.603381, 3.603763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.69, "volume": 407986, "typical_volume": 1074307.9, "trend": 3.551333, "fair_value": 4.58359, "relative_strength": -31.336189, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.19798, "energy": 77.00576, "activity_lines": [ 2.752, 3.074364, 3.50719, 3.546602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.64, "volume": 1001270, "typical_volume": 1083620.7, "trend": 3.518, "fair_value": 4.546603, "relative_strength": -32.432814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.020081, "energy": 71.637597, "activity_lines": [ 2.722, 2.943091, 3.409095, 3.487806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.58, "volume": 954900, "typical_volume": 1111217.7, "trend": 3.484667, "fair_value": 4.509103, "relative_strength": -36.591869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.670325, "energy": 70.61782, "activity_lines": [ 2.670667, 2.826182, 3.309524, 3.42729 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }