{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3315fc98-0be8-4202-bc22-350b58e4c604", "symbol": "XLYP", "name": "Invesco Consumer Discretionary S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.804, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.05, "architecture_energy": 14.243, "architecture_maturity": 8.399, "architecture_confidence": 68.565, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.2, "rotation_up": 23.73, "upward_expansion": 12.46, "deceleration": 49.86, "rotation_down": 48.56, "downward_expansion": 44.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 61470.333333, 61752.0, 62012.97619, 61838.731183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 63385.0, "trend_reference": 61946.166667, "distance_from_trend": 0.023227, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 55417.820513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143766, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.367053, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.023246, "excess_performance": -0.027989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023227, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00883, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.143766, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019433, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063671, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031758, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.023246, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.151182, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 161, "relative_activity": 0.2468, "balance": 1.151182, "dry_up": 0.605503, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026037, "annualized_volatility": 0.178162, "from_high_reference": -0.040339, "from_low_reference": 0.103553 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61946.166667, "fair_value_reference": 55417.820513, "structural_low": 57437.199219, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.040311, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.034522, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.126794, "worst_return": -0.005186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.118817, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.048443, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.138954, "worst_return": -0.135576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.213991, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.067793, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.248483, "worst_return": -0.01546, 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"activity_lines": [ 62636.666667, 62597.727273, 62191.452381, 62112.462366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 61725.0, "volume": 447, "typical_volume": 709.95, "trend": 62287.5, "fair_value": 55136.464744, "relative_strength": -6.931668, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.682741, "energy": 3.612351, "activity_lines": [ 62370.333333, 62438.181818, 62191.666667, 62069.021505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58780.0, "volume": 157, "typical_volume": 679.0, "trend": 62097.666667, "fair_value": 55216.442308, "relative_strength": -12.227451, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.962656, "energy": 48.090306, "activity_lines": [ 61121.0, 61762.454545, 61914.357143, 61842.731183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60680.0, "volume": 815, "typical_volume": 676.1, "trend": 62029.333333, "fair_value": 55305.362179, "relative_strength": -10.277302, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.823905, "energy": 50.716814, "activity_lines": [ 60787.0, 61490.636364, 61835.738095, 61751.268817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63385.0, "volume": 161, "typical_volume": 652.35, "trend": 61946.166667, "fair_value": 55417.820513, "relative_strength": -6.367053, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.050287, "energy": 14.243224, "activity_lines": [ 61470.333333, 61752.0, 62012.97619, 61838.731183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }