{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33165910-d832-4805-a5ee-dcf0b3707fde", "symbol": "603895", "name": "Shanghai Tianyong Engineering Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.966, "architecture_energy": 72.715, "architecture_maturity": 20.772, "architecture_confidence": 79.248, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.26, "rotation_up": 8.48, "upward_expansion": 16.25, "deceleration": 37.2, "rotation_down": 73.63, "downward_expansion": 89.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.066667, 26.244909, 29.024714, 29.532237 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.68, "trend_reference": 30.269333, "distance_from_trend": -0.184653, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.888846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008391, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.856154, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.311768, "excess_performance": -0.268564, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184653, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010849, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008391, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.313266, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168562, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176838, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.311768, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.377439, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10445834, "relative_activity": 1.049576, "balance": 1.377439, "dry_up": 0.904439, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.179778, "annualized_volatility": 0.656222, "from_high_reference": -0.409287, "from_low_reference": 0.194579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.269333, "fair_value_reference": 24.888846, "structural_low": 20.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.007066, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.01195, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.452003, "worst_return": -0.072844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.06971, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.119989, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.804196, "worst_return": -0.068333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.116844, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.228633, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.590936, "worst_return": -0.078571, "sufficient": false 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.177419, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022577, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.310194, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.193769, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", 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"activity_lines": [ 30.320667, 31.923091, 31.556714, 31.352194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.5, "volume": 7166200, "typical_volume": 10221148.7, "trend": 30.880667, "fair_value": 24.921346, "relative_strength": -11.250619, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.667918, "energy": 32.232961, "activity_lines": [ 28.746667, 30.515818, 31.041381, 30.999333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.6, "volume": 8175920, "typical_volume": 9824417.7, "trend": 30.650667, "fair_value": 24.899551, "relative_strength": -25.461626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.01545, "energy": 67.849081, "activity_lines": [ 26.176, 28.515818, 30.190571, 30.400581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.93, "volume": 10217518, "typical_volume": 9771973.75, "trend": 30.418667, "fair_value": 24.884872, "relative_strength": -20.954478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.434371, "energy": 73.367341, "activity_lines": [ 24.648667, 27.085273, 29.510429, 29.902473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.68, "volume": 10445834, "typical_volume": 9952435.45, "trend": 30.269333, "fair_value": 24.888846, "relative_strength": -16.856154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.966098, "energy": 72.715232, "activity_lines": [ 24.066667, 26.244909, 29.024714, 29.532237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }