{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33206fdd-c204-4e29-a6e3-da973c9cd801", "symbol": "PET", "name": "Petrel Resources Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 68.654, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.822, "architecture_energy": 10.499, "architecture_maturity": 61.703, "architecture_confidence": 80.414, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.48, "rotation_up": 30.7, "upward_expansion": 56.4, "deceleration": 82.55, "rotation_down": 23.95, "downward_expansion": 15.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0089, 0.008973, 0.008869, 0.008724 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.0085, "trend_reference": 0.008517, "distance_from_trend": -0.001957, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.011796, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.279446, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.103232, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0625, "excess_performance": 0.011265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001957, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076923, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.279446, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023484, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051032, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042645, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0625, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.765014, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65077, "relative_activity": 0.050471, "balance": 1.765014, "dry_up": 1.347662, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.279729, "annualized_volatility": 0.439206, "from_high_reference": -0.227273, "from_low_reference": 0.523297 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.008517, "fair_value_reference": 0.011796, "structural_low": 0.0065, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.014706, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.318182, "median_excess_return": -0.0334, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.298246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.04, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.074135, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.794118, "worst_return": -0.350877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014286, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01478, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.386364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.201872, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.259001, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.22807, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092593, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.327273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.35, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"relative_strength": 2.583654, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.647334, "energy": 19.605424, "activity_lines": [ 0.009, 0.008927, 0.00878, 0.008611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.01, "volume": 3365637, "typical_volume": 1277717.1, "trend": 0.008433, "fair_value": 0.011841, "relative_strength": 12.541568, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.236384, "energy": 27.610579, "activity_lines": [ 0.009333, 0.009136, 0.008911, 0.008718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0085, "volume": 2512757, "typical_volume": 1319797.6, "trend": 0.008467, "fair_value": 0.011819, "relative_strength": -5.158631, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.22403, "energy": 17.183728, "activity_lines": [ 0.0091, 0.009055, 0.008889, 0.008722 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0085, "volume": 65077, "typical_volume": 1289390.1, "trend": 0.008517, "fair_value": 0.011796, "relative_strength": -5.103232, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.822409, "energy": 10.499164, "activity_lines": [ 0.0089, 0.008973, 0.008869, 0.008724 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }