{ "ticker": { "uuid": "332391c5-8cb2-467c-836b-8577e8eb48f0", "symbol": "STX", "name": "Seagate Technology PLC", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.193, "architecture_energy": 18.207, "architecture_maturity": 76.187, "architecture_confidence": 95.002, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.87, "rotation_up": 23.93, "upward_expansion": 55.0, "deceleration": 91.04, "rotation_down": 27.05, "downward_expansion": 18.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 835.27, 858.876046, 834.530254, 751.119383 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 812.76, "trend_reference": 637.367378, "distance_from_trend": 0.275183, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 217.820726, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.731325, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 57.63515, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.896524, "excess_performance": 0.70907, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.275183, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.457603, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.731325, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.468163, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.576352, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.75983, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.896524, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.463205, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26125542, "relative_activity": 1.197605, "balance": 1.463205, "dry_up": 1.310567, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.197215, "annualized_volatility": 0.698044, "from_high_reference": -0.289637, "from_low_reference": 4.414385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 637.367378, "fair_value_reference": 217.820726, "structural_low": 341.388637, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.022338, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.006891, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.334365, "worst_return": -0.099906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.065107, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.047614, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.605229, "worst_return": -0.234301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.173902, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.016706, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.306374, "worst_return": -0.242355, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": 78.662828, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.714765, "energy": 23.893502, "activity_lines": [ 846.082, 872.040486, 827.713643, 738.708475 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 812.76, "volume": 26125542, "typical_volume": 21814823.65, "trend": 637.367378, "fair_value": 217.820726, "relative_strength": 57.63515, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.192868, "energy": 18.207146, "activity_lines": [ 835.27, 858.876046, 834.530254, 751.119383 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }