{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3324617c-a902-4ba7-93b6-6a9de11343bf", "symbol": "AOSLN", "name": "ALPHA & OMEGA SEMICONDUCTOR LTD", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.402, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.824, "architecture_energy": 52.317, "architecture_maturity": 10.057, "architecture_confidence": 59.468, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.91, "rotation_up": 62.5, "upward_expansion": 58.85, "deceleration": 24.85, "rotation_down": 18.5, "downward_expansion": 19.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 827.0, 812.044182, 784.69438, 783.596601 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 827.0, "trend_reference": 787.088666, "distance_from_trend": 0.050708, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 717.861795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.152032, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.259621, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.018473, "excess_performance": 0.07314, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050708, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006336, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.152032, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.296301, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012596, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.314943, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018473, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05365, "annualized_volatility": 0.601765, "from_high_reference": -0.03549, "from_low_reference": 0.323052 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 787.088666, "fair_value_reference": 717.861795, "structural_low": 625.070007, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.049474, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.02962, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.049474, "worst_return": -0.049474, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002032, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000601, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168719, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.213763, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.234328, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 933.5, 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.216184, "energy": 33.006561, "activity_lines": [ 814.266667, 788.730907, 769.303808, 775.678278 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 827.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 260.4, "trend": 786.088666, "fair_value": 719.227179, "relative_strength": 1.539559, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.676058, "energy": 51.666795, "activity_lines": [ 825.866667, 799.265635, 774.505427, 778.349977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 827.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 260.4, "trend": 786.588666, "fair_value": 718.544487, "relative_strength": 1.002863, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.502602, "energy": 53.235718, "activity_lines": [ 827.0, 807.036727, 779.635618, 780.989418 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 827.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 260.4, "trend": 787.088666, "fair_value": 717.861795, "relative_strength": 1.259621, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.824029, "energy": 52.31695, "activity_lines": [ 827.0, 812.044182, 784.69438, 783.596601 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }