{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3329c38b-5284-4353-94e7-630fd12fbb07", "symbol": "4113", "name": "We & Win Diversification Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.385, "architecture_energy": 33.543, "architecture_maturity": 62.354, "architecture_confidence": 89.506, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.72, "rotation_up": 21.18, "upward_expansion": 3.38, "deceleration": 53.06, "rotation_down": 49.71, "downward_expansion": 76.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.74, 14.943636, 15.142143, 15.698387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.9, "trend_reference": 16.865, "distance_from_trend": -0.116513, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.381822, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.455843, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -47.060139, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.271394, "excess_performance": -0.712766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116513, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125713, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.455843, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012619, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.470601, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0563, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271394, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.819031, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1456762, "relative_activity": 0.903572, "balance": 1.819031, "dry_up": 0.558884, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103769, "annualized_volatility": 0.321785, "from_high_reference": -0.43985, "from_low_reference": 0.071942 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.865, "fair_value_reference": 27.381822, "structural_low": 13.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.015825, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": -0.025084, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.226087, "worst_return": -0.277385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.067259, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.030924, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.218608, "worst_return": -0.194707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.033607, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042892, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.357143, "worst_return": -0.315113, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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27.45871, "relative_strength": -55.894139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.084285, "energy": 62.047804, "activity_lines": [ 14.756667, 15.090909, 16.530714, 17.938172 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 15.2, "volume": 1396152, "typical_volume": 1614122.4, "trend": 19.29, "fair_value": 27.455164, "relative_strength": -52.695817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.863097, "energy": 52.845545, "activity_lines": [ 14.906667, 15.026364, 16.26119, 17.66086 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 16.75, "volume": 6323229, "typical_volume": 1888690.55, "trend": 19.118333, "fair_value": 27.46217, "relative_strength": -46.023234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.633715, "energy": 34.723989, "activity_lines": [ 15.53, 15.281818, 16.176429, 17.496989 ] 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.883341, "energy": 23.858292, "activity_lines": [ 15.836667, 15.593636, 15.830952, 16.91086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.05, "volume": 582101, "typical_volume": 1959196.1, "trend": 18.341667, "fair_value": 27.454971, "relative_strength": -49.826809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.235411, "energy": 29.747687, "activity_lines": [ 15.536667, 15.539091, 15.685, 16.682688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.7, "volume": 929945, "typical_volume": 1955553.6, "trend": 18.1, "fair_value": 27.443294, "relative_strength": -47.120528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.88732, "energy": 39.524672, "activity_lines": [ 15.13, 15.411818, 15.530952, 16.447742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.75, "volume": 527101, "typical_volume": 1935097.75, "trend": 17.795, "fair_value": 27.433477, "relative_strength": -47.384863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.828957, "energy": 40.183919, "activity_lines": [ 14.876667, 15.296364, 15.407143, 16.231613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.4, "volume": 876300, "typical_volume": 1866901.15, "trend": 17.435, "fair_value": 27.418646, "relative_strength": -47.26704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.588035, "energy": 43.241923, "activity_lines": [ 14.68, 15.114545, 15.270714, 16.012581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.8, "volume": 744026, "typical_volume": 1620795.3, "trend": 17.135, "fair_value": 27.4033, "relative_strength": -46.364314, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.965937, "energy": 43.71191, "activity_lines": [ 14.686667, 15.024545, 15.194524, 15.842581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.9, "volume": 1456762, "typical_volume": 1612226.35, "trend": 16.865, "fair_value": 27.381822, "relative_strength": -47.060139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.385223, "energy": 33.543136, "activity_lines": [ 14.74, 14.943636, 15.142143, 15.698387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }