{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3329ce43-fcfd-4b66-a12c-6864cf87cafa", "symbol": "FFH", "name": "Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.218, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.649, "architecture_energy": 16.253, "architecture_maturity": 13.897, "architecture_confidence": 44.979, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.06, "rotation_up": 45.57, "upward_expansion": 42.67, "deceleration": 41.0, "rotation_down": 24.59, "downward_expansion": 12.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 2346.738037, 2340.671844, 2307.717478, 2307.688147 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2370.050049, "trend_reference": 2310.991659, "distance_from_trend": 0.025555, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1892.307051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.252466, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.466593, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.014099, "excess_performance": -0.106323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025555, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014536, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.252466, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008265, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104666, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055021, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014099, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.975557, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 199900, "relative_activity": 0.839228, "balance": 0.975557, "dry_up": 1.179811, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048951, "annualized_volatility": 0.254713, "from_high_reference": -0.115043, "from_low_reference": 0.113932 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2310.991659, "fair_value_reference": 1892.307051, "structural_low": 2142.370117, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.01421, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002361, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.073951, "worst_return": -0.10819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.081685, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.042297, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.233234, "worst_return": -0.034199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.150063, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.085247, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.486789, "worst_return": 0.057169, 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0.077909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.075449, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034759, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029636, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01521, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086984, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073951, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115568, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.033923, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038898, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019802, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1083.273926, "volume": 137100, "typical_volume": 152490.0, "trend": 923.211584, "fair_value": 619.038172, "relative_strength": 32.990692, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"direction": 14.093825, "energy": 13.081175, "activity_lines": [ 2341.117367, 2327.626016, 2301.662329, 2304.356511 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2370.050049, "volume": 199900, "typical_volume": 238195.0, "trend": 2310.991659, "fair_value": 1892.307051, "relative_strength": -10.466593, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.649144, "energy": 16.252849, "activity_lines": [ 2346.738037, 2340.671844, 2307.717478, 2307.688147 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }