{ "ticker": { "uuid": "332a0292-1e5e-4888-ac0c-c425bd890f36", "symbol": "OESX", "name": "Orion Energy Systems Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 59.956, "architecture_energy": 64.917, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.209, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.44, "rotation_up": 65.67, "upward_expansion": 55.48, "deceleration": 30.11, "rotation_down": 17.13, "downward_expansion": 20.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.364, 12.096727, 11.007476, 10.78071 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.7, "trend_reference": 11.183667, "distance_from_trend": 0.761497, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.854085, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.999171, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 52.724055, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.407143, "excess_performance": 0.219689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.761497, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108232, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.999171, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.042322, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.527241, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.706692, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.407143, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.004248, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1154867, "relative_activity": 4.249313, "balance": 2.004248, "dry_up": 1.585313, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116447, "annualized_volatility": 1.03033, "from_high_reference": -0.01154, "from_low_reference": 2.517857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.183667, "fair_value_reference": 9.854085, "structural_low": 8.58, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.031325, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.091713, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.018349, "worst_return": -0.136272, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.152309, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.177877, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.756257, "worst_return": -0.224679, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.161474, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.360811, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.018498, "worst_return": -0.220183, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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9.919381, 10.56243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.35, "volume": 202036, "typical_volume": 221013.05, "trend": 11.635, "fair_value": 9.96088, "relative_strength": -17.502957, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.984977, "energy": 17.414763, "activity_lines": [ 10.764, 10.323455, 9.957095, 10.463763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.41, "volume": 295244, "typical_volume": 226235.8, "trend": 11.444, "fair_value": 9.921201, "relative_strength": -13.8911, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.715799, "energy": 16.778917, "activity_lines": [ 10.732, 10.387273, 10.008857, 10.384731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.13, "volume": 125132, "typical_volume": 223848.5, "trend": 11.254667, "fair_value": 9.880367, "relative_strength": -15.242305, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.899479, "energy": 10.562522, "activity_lines": [ 10.536, 10.390545, 10.037333, 10.299957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.1, "volume": 148166, "typical_volume": 222170.3, "trend": 11.093667, "fair_value": 9.834854, "relative_strength": -16.322984, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.304337, "energy": 12.325975, "activity_lines": [ 10.309333, 10.372909, 10.066238, 10.225462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.7, "volume": 1154867, "typical_volume": 271777.35, "trend": 11.183667, "fair_value": 9.854085, "relative_strength": 52.724055, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.955967, "energy": 64.917123, "activity_lines": [ 13.364, 12.096727, 11.007476, 10.78071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }