{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33380156-33a4-49e5-974e-54e2f55dc0b0", "symbol": "VRT", "name": "Vertiv Holdings Co", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.99, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.582, "architecture_energy": 26.904, "architecture_maturity": 35.444, "architecture_confidence": 48.547, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.07, "rotation_up": 18.06, "upward_expansion": 24.1, "deceleration": 55.1, "rotation_down": 58.58, "downward_expansion": 40.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 273.156, 286.995608, 301.159836, 294.836485 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 272.4, "trend_reference": 276.783586, "distance_from_trend": -0.015838, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 132.97827, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.048455, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.034187, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.393405, "excess_performance": 0.26778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015838, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.176763, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.048455, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.05329, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.080342, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.604886, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.393405, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.624537, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30247123, "relative_activity": 1.019883, "balance": 0.624537, "dry_up": 1.087251, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171909, "annualized_volatility": 0.579466, "from_high_reference": -0.282892, "from_low_reference": 1.297359 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 276.783586, "fair_value_reference": 132.97827, "structural_low": 195.747274, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0628, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.038422, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.466213, "worst_return": -0.130581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.079077, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.033666, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.601424, "worst_return": -0.527045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.330445, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.230114, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.951086, "worst_return": -0.435094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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314.578699, 311.967219, 293.520613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 289.56, "volume": 22240887, "typical_volume": 34219917.3, "trend": 266.857353, "fair_value": 128.430202, "relative_strength": 22.348411, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.68118, "energy": 10.927765, "activity_lines": [ 304.385333, 308.799465, 311.017201, 295.264464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 290.36, "volume": 16694213, "typical_volume": 33524049.05, "trend": 270.952522, "fair_value": 130.12573, "relative_strength": 22.119425, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.72997, "energy": 10.146405, "activity_lines": [ 298.108667, 304.080993, 309.977734, 296.780764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 241.57, "volume": 59798121, "typical_volume": 33849729.3, "trend": 273.153811, "fair_value": 131.44616, "relative_strength": -0.059958, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.911974, "energy": 17.985091, "activity_lines": [ 278.414667, 291.955352, 304.059751, 294.885118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 272.4, "volume": 30247123, "typical_volume": 29657433.85, "trend": 276.783586, "fair_value": 132.97827, "relative_strength": 8.034187, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.582168, "energy": 26.904395, "activity_lines": [ 273.156, 286.995608, 301.159836, 294.836485 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }