{ "ticker": { "uuid": "333cdd6f-669f-450f-9acb-0b8b620a5faf", "symbol": "ADBE", "name": "Adobe Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.822, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.947, "architecture_energy": 18.781, "architecture_maturity": 35.983, "architecture_confidence": 57.228, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.91, "rotation_up": 44.07, "upward_expansion": 27.18, "deceleration": 41.25, "rotation_down": 12.23, "downward_expansion": 47.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 4267.304769, 4063.87168, 4075.12527, 4155.770757 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4536.990234, "trend_reference": 4321.817008, "distance_from_trend": 0.049788, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7775.123451, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.416474, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.020008, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.010126, "excess_performance": 0.044541, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049788, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143195, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.416474, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04839, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1502, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.204157, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010126, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.850014, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4607, "relative_activity": 0.4742, "balance": 1.850014, "dry_up": 1.310793, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08122, "annualized_volatility": 0.503228, "from_high_reference": -0.337472, "from_low_reference": 0.334405 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4321.817008, "fair_value_reference": 7775.123451, "structural_low": 3400.01001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.024543, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.040595, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.118534, "worst_return": -0.23677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.130526, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.134304, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.205228, "worst_return": -0.241143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.038135, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051952, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.241736, "worst_return": -0.211886, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017836, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010622, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041093, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023471, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048579, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045551, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002881, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.513127, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8845.0, "volume": 567, "typical_volume": 4598.45, "trend": 7376.617334, "fair_value": 9196.900582, "relative_strength": 23.242194, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": 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4370.850993, "fair_value": 7800.931268, "relative_strength": -19.80788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.903132, "energy": 16.926507, "activity_lines": [ 4098.956022, 3958.517454, 4033.933773, 4145.052096 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4536.990234, "volume": 4607, "typical_volume": 9715.3, "trend": 4321.817008, "fair_value": 7775.123451, "relative_strength": -15.020008, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.946986, "energy": 18.780738, "activity_lines": [ 4267.304769, 4063.87168, 4075.12527, 4155.770757 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }