{ "ticker": { "uuid": "333de63e-345d-4154-ab58-ef38166edf6c", "symbol": "XEU", "name": "iShares MSCI Europe IMI Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.757, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.961, "architecture_energy": 67.925, "architecture_maturity": 25.735, "architecture_confidence": 82.467, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.96, "rotation_up": 61.23, "upward_expansion": 86.28, "deceleration": 51.18, "rotation_down": 22.35, "downward_expansion": 12.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.316001, 41.074497, 40.350285, 39.803179 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 42.02, "trend_reference": 39.321262, "distance_from_trend": 0.068633, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.201553, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.304906, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.954373, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.067853, "excess_performance": -0.052569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068633, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031469, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.304906, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052248, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019544, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039229, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.067853, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.349047, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15700, "relative_activity": 0.576888, "balance": 1.349047, "dry_up": 0.559434, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021167, "annualized_volatility": 0.186163, "from_high_reference": -0.006385, "from_low_reference": 0.221842 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.321262, "fair_value_reference": 32.201553, "structural_low": 35.57, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.015279, "positive_rate": 0.641026, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": -0.003852, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.120168, "worst_return": -0.11891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.043899, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.023128, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.072238, "worst_return": -0.037402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.08299, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.018542, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.136992, "worst_return": -0.201569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.186688, "energy": 61.67624, "activity_lines": [ 40.794667, 40.609728, 39.882264, 39.47431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.400002, "volume": 24100, "typical_volume": 29150.0, "trend": 39.220595, "fair_value": 32.09543, "relative_strength": -0.382706, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.272028, "energy": 52.738496, "activity_lines": [ 40.986668, 40.804742, 40.097489, 39.622573 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.02, "volume": 15700, "typical_volume": 27215.0, "trend": 39.321262, "fair_value": 32.201553, "relative_strength": -1.954373, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.961011, "energy": 67.925217, "activity_lines": [ 41.316001, 41.074497, 40.350285, 39.803179 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }