{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3345430a-6611-47db-994c-c411c20daee3", "symbol": "DGS", "name": "WISDOMTREE TRUST EMERGING MKTS SMALLCAP DIVID USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.355, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.855, "architecture_energy": 16.025, "architecture_maturity": 14.798, "architecture_confidence": 61.037, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.59, "rotation_up": 20.69, "upward_expansion": 18.75, "deceleration": 61.62, "rotation_down": 52.5, "downward_expansion": 39.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.3773, 62.980229, 63.330246, 62.999475 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 63.8599, "trend_reference": 62.54705, "distance_from_trend": 0.02099, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.694933, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235322, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.803339, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.029181, "excess_performance": -0.096444, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02099, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037667, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235322, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063323, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048033, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057123, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029181, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.096659, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 228231, "relative_activity": 0.907523, "balance": 1.096659, "dry_up": 0.863671, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039156, "annualized_volatility": 0.21828, "from_high_reference": -0.032841, "from_low_reference": 0.177596 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.54705, "fair_value_reference": 51.694933, "structural_low": 58.24, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.000212, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000267, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.060613, "worst_return": -0.075066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.010032, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.04086, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.081313, "worst_return": -0.171497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001716, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.045557, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.197801, "worst_return": -0.221741, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 62.03, "volume": 221636, "typical_volume": 359061.15, "trend": 62.103493, "fair_value": 51.351451, "relative_strength": -4.082997, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.898985, "energy": 11.944033, "activity_lines": [ 63.631484, 63.884064, 63.548336, 63.039582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.33, "volume": 210542, "typical_volume": 306380.3, "trend": 62.247281, "fair_value": 51.453946, "relative_strength": -4.527727, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.72886, "energy": 11.859974, "activity_lines": [ 62.727333, 63.422221, 63.415705, 62.989679 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.9, "volume": 208402, "typical_volume": 273559.55, "trend": 62.36079, "fair_value": 51.562536, "relative_strength": -6.115702, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.012277, "energy": 23.748897, "activity_lines": [ 61.964667, 62.903736, 63.235769, 62.902758 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.8599, "volume": 228231, "typical_volume": 251487.9, "trend": 62.54705, "fair_value": 51.694933, "relative_strength": -4.803339, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.855131, "energy": 16.02486, "activity_lines": [ 62.3773, 62.980229, 63.330246, 62.999475 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }