{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3345dbaa-b44b-43b8-b9df-3f0454f5a733", "symbol": "IKE", "name": "ikeGPS Group Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.638, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.834, "architecture_energy": 24.342, "architecture_maturity": 54.54, "architecture_confidence": 81.291, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.14, "rotation_up": 17.36, "upward_expansion": 47.7, "deceleration": 87.12, "rotation_down": 35.29, "downward_expansion": 25.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.153, 1.177909, 1.181786, 1.142011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.145, "trend_reference": 1.096833, "distance_from_trend": 0.043914, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.778301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.471153, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.507834, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.133663, "excess_performance": 0.10539, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043914, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028763, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.471153, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175143, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035078, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176754, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133663, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.072369, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88023, "relative_activity": 0.181435, "balance": 3.072369, "dry_up": 0.154208, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040309, "annualized_volatility": 0.323031, "from_high_reference": -0.119231, "from_low_reference": 0.331395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.096833, "fair_value_reference": 0.778301, "structural_low": 0.88, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.006401, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.266667, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.046296, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.057585, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.421053, "worst_return": -0.242718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.06939, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02631, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.421053, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134831, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094737, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013699, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009009, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.192683, "energy": 44.601246, "activity_lines": [ 1.215333, 1.217273, 1.170524, 1.126269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.16, "volume": 21000, "typical_volume": 490083.55, "trend": 1.092, "fair_value": 0.770128, "relative_strength": 6.324641, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.908256, "energy": 31.319266, "activity_lines": [ 1.194, 1.206818, 1.175429, 1.130796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.155, "volume": 59124, "typical_volume": 486303.85, "trend": 1.0935, "fair_value": 0.772981, "relative_strength": 5.194801, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.396758, "energy": 29.522766, "activity_lines": [ 1.174, 1.196545, 1.178667, 1.13486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.155, "volume": 131110, "typical_volume": 489782.45, "trend": 1.095667, "fair_value": 0.775641, "relative_strength": 5.529002, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.677853, "energy": 30.135151, "activity_lines": [ 1.161, 1.187636, 1.181167, 1.138828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.145, "volume": 88023, "typical_volume": 485150.15, "trend": 1.096833, "fair_value": 0.778301, "relative_strength": 3.507834, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.833908, "energy": 24.341711, "activity_lines": [ 1.153, 1.177909, 1.181786, 1.142011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }