{ "ticker": { "uuid": "334f0b87-449e-4eb8-978d-b605016fe5b1", "symbol": "CAE", "name": "CAE Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.811, "architecture_energy": 5.027, "architecture_maturity": 17.794, "architecture_confidence": 73.246, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.34, "rotation_up": 26.65, "upward_expansion": 24.86, "deceleration": 48.42, "rotation_down": 23.19, "downward_expansion": 49.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.984667, 25.693273, 25.601238, 26.075527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.19, "trend_reference": 27.263667, "distance_from_trend": -0.002702, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.850641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140011, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.66716, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.12992, "excess_performance": -0.255545, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002702, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039786, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140011, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003166, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126672, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024187, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12992, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.862287, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2827091, "relative_activity": 0.73459, "balance": 0.862287, "dry_up": 0.666977, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062367, "annualized_volatility": 0.308509, "from_high_reference": -0.2059, "from_low_reference": 0.19464 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.263667, "fair_value_reference": 23.850641, "structural_low": 22.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.011898, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.004087, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.106903, "worst_return": -0.305597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.082775, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.055926, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.308065, "worst_return": -0.311744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.125499, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.212503, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109222, "worst_return": -0.318111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.146389, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.186508, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.547312, "worst_return": -0.205486, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117001, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025513, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03172, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.233172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037495, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03423, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.097883, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00073, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010389, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037886, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1338, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020882, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.000774, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 23.69, "volume": 1556843, "typical_volume": 970231.6, "trend": 22.231, "fair_value": 24.216987, "relative_strength": 5.11999, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", 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"fair_value": 23.804359, "relative_strength": -16.233047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.569537, "energy": 28.990421, "activity_lines": [ 25.202667, 25.243091, 25.449095, 26.209505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.82, "volume": 2902272, "typical_volume": 3862599.4, "trend": 27.458333, "fair_value": 23.827115, "relative_strength": -14.570583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.962161, "energy": 20.681588, "activity_lines": [ 25.376, 25.367818, 25.456238, 26.092839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.19, "volume": 2827091, "typical_volume": 3848529.85, "trend": 27.263667, "fair_value": 23.850641, "relative_strength": -12.66716, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.811239, "energy": 5.027396, "activity_lines": [ 25.984667, 25.693273, 25.601238, 26.075527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }