{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33517c55-f71e-4eb8-bb85-6284975cad9d", "symbol": "CSNA3", "name": "Companhia Sider\u00fargica Nacional", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.37, "architecture_energy": 58.486, "architecture_maturity": 91.83, "architecture_confidence": 89.635, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.42, "rotation_up": 24.67, "upward_expansion": 9.15, "deceleration": 60.67, "rotation_down": 54.94, "downward_expansion": 80.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.904667, 5.008545, 5.499667, 5.906538 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.57, "trend_reference": 6.699333, "distance_from_trend": -0.317843, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.992767, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.542669, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.304255, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.519453, "excess_performance": -0.462405, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.317843, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156432, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.542669, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181475, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.413043, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110225, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.519453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.493413, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80242200, "relative_activity": 1.752611, "balance": 0.493413, "dry_up": 1.44023, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130618, "annualized_volatility": 0.565926, "from_high_reference": -0.59629, "from_low_reference": 0.048165 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.699333, "fair_value_reference": 9.992767, "structural_low": 4.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.010109, "positive_rate": 0.378378, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.009611, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.439509, "worst_return": -0.295082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.039781, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.073214, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.460673, "worst_return": -0.326906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.114133, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.171917, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.402566, "worst_return": -0.327803, "sufficient": true 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{ "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037592, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.211764, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184805, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015248, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052439, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 5.18, "volume": 54133200, "typical_volume": 52044810.0, "trend": 7.271333, "fair_value": 10.150512, "relative_strength": -38.606352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.697143, "energy": 87.130467, "activity_lines": [ 5.062667, 5.503455, 5.913143, 6.452366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.05, "volume": 56578300, "typical_volume": 51788620.0, "trend": 7.130333, "fair_value": 10.112624, "relative_strength": -37.973305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.088558, "energy": 83.923332, "activity_lines": [ 5.01, 5.356545, 5.800667, 6.309054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.36, "volume": 49425700, "typical_volume": 50909270.0, "trend": 7.003667, "fair_value": 10.072635, "relative_strength": -33.41863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.774157, "energy": 59.151168, "activity_lines": [ 5.127333, 5.295636, 5.734714, 6.194839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.84, "volume": 77514000, "typical_volume": 48616750.0, "trend": 6.875, "fair_value": 10.032296, "relative_strength": -40.46342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.435266, "energy": 54.989992, "activity_lines": [ 5.064667, 5.159455, 5.627952, 6.055247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.57, "volume": 80242200, "typical_volume": 45784380.0, "trend": 6.699333, "fair_value": 9.992767, "relative_strength": -41.304255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.370451, "energy": 58.486115, "activity_lines": [ 4.904667, 5.008545, 5.499667, 5.906538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }