{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3351fd0a-a875-46d8-98fe-1cf4ad33e1ad", "symbol": "QQEQ", "name": "Invesco NASDAQ 100 Equal Weight Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.678, "architecture_energy": 42.393, "architecture_maturity": 65.261, "architecture_confidence": 75.216, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.49, "rotation_up": 35.89, "upward_expansion": 68.0, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.99, "downward_expansion": 27.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.954667, 36.269952, 35.521127, 34.356496 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 36.400002, "trend_reference": 32.99315, "distance_from_trend": 0.103259, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.913009, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.304052, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.625008, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.199625, "excess_performance": 0.079204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103259, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06098, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.304052, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062857, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01625, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037635, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.199625, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.918489, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100, "relative_activity": 0.067143, "balance": 0.918489, "dry_up": 1.930372, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022149, "annualized_volatility": 0.13936, "from_high_reference": -0.027778, "from_low_reference": 0.262153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.99315, "fair_value_reference": 27.913009, "structural_low": 28.92, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0221, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.018829, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.081206, "worst_return": -0.046763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006819, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004473, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088234, "worst_return": -0.109016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.108267, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.009605, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.146319, "worst_return": 0.041855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.159743, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.045149, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.251019, "worst_return": 0.068466, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016824, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040204, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025465, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.039739, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000647, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009132, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018512, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029786, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 37.023739, 36.428113, 34.645201, 33.519089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.110001, "volume": 2800, "typical_volume": 1328.7, "trend": 32.50968, "fair_value": 27.655429, "relative_strength": 3.64373, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.235024, "energy": 67.995971, "activity_lines": [ 36.765197, 36.498212, 34.930054, 33.762805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.209999, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 1281.9, "trend": 32.662598, "fair_value": 27.735714, "relative_strength": 0.922446, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.162702, "energy": 60.263688, "activity_lines": [ 36.211533, 36.351167, 35.103061, 33.937019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.599998, "volume": 7200, "typical_volume": 1534.45, "trend": 32.835508, "fair_value": 27.820949, "relative_strength": 2.566464, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.141484, "energy": 48.677024, "activity_lines": [ 35.916666, 36.248782, 35.28818, 34.126529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.400002, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 1489.35, "trend": 32.99315, "fair_value": 27.913009, "relative_strength": 1.625008, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.677638, "energy": 42.392724, "activity_lines": [ 35.954667, 36.269952, 35.521127, 34.356496 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }