{ "ticker": { "uuid": "335900a1-7298-4af6-8b26-7319e0e4512f", "symbol": "ELUX-A", "name": "AB Electrolux (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.61, "architecture_energy": 62.361, "architecture_maturity": 93.848, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 29.83, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.44, "rotation_down": 52.14, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.373333, 27.461818, 33.090877, 41.245782 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.0, "trend_reference": 52.324016, "distance_from_trend": -0.407538, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 91.013272, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.65939, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.273012, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.641618, "excess_performance": -0.703113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.407538, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191541, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.65939, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.53273, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.26699, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.641618, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.293657, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29060, "relative_activity": 1.013092, "balance": 0.293657, "dry_up": 3.411605, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170281, "annualized_volatility": 1.140417, "from_high_reference": -0.661202, "from_low_reference": 0.371681 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.324016, "fair_value_reference": 91.013272, "structural_low": 22.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.021159, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.437037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.009851, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033083, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.164479, "worst_return": -0.246753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.162338, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.195521, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.27027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186441, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.216867, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.146552, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036496, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159722, 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.219455, "energy": 79.977881, "activity_lines": [ 29.586666, 32.67967, 43.007555, 50.990949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.799999, "volume": 35833, "typical_volume": 10416.75, "trend": 57.894016, "fair_value": 94.3184, "relative_strength": -64.149717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.151984, "energy": 71.33766, "activity_lines": [ 27.76, 30.368389, 40.374124, 48.762948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.0, "volume": 10322, "typical_volume": 10628.2, "trend": 56.477349, "fair_value": 93.459426, "relative_strength": -64.264843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.43632, "energy": 69.908439, "activity_lines": [ 26.253333, 28.433471, 37.944027, 46.576237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 293549, "typical_volume": 24977.25, "trend": 54.954016, "fair_value": 92.579939, "relative_strength": -65.89207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.509771, "energy": 84.804451, "activity_lines": [ 24.773333, 26.889463, 35.66631, 44.403505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.6, "volume": 58509, "typical_volume": 27657.05, "trend": 53.590682, "fair_value": 91.801734, "relative_strength": -56.984158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.496925, "energy": 66.348596, "activity_lines": [ 25.626666, 26.967272, 34.177641, 42.703246 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.0, "volume": 29060, "typical_volume": 28684.45, "trend": 52.324016, "fair_value": 91.013272, "relative_strength": -53.273012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.610304, "energy": 62.360891, "activity_lines": [ 27.373333, 27.461818, 33.090877, 41.245782 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }