{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33668d64-15b0-443b-9247-344304e6e884", "symbol": "KPG", "name": "Kelly Partners Group Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.643, "architecture_energy": 17.914, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.794, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.29, "rotation_up": 30.34, "upward_expansion": 21.62, "deceleration": 44.12, "rotation_down": 19.76, "downward_expansion": 53.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.113333, 3.996364, 4.04319, 4.322344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.35, "trend_reference": 4.889, "distance_from_trend": -0.110247, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.660019, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.432116, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.687609, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.238179, "excess_performance": -0.301884, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110247, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238197, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.432116, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01675, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.396876, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076736, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238179, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.709268, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 221163, "relative_activity": 0.645902, "balance": 0.709268, "dry_up": 0.959629, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095314, "annualized_volatility": 0.484191, "from_high_reference": -0.617414, "from_low_reference": 0.242857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.889, "fair_value_reference": 7.660019, "structural_low": 3.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.017544, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.024357, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.192592, "worst_return": -0.208333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.011788, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029159, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.345224, "worst_return": -0.372527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.109008, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.076891, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.738703, "worst_return": -0.504396, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"orange", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035629, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138614, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027957, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063481, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.511125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084525, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.20524, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041176, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.097353, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.521978, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.600087, "volume": 175664, "typical_volume": 71153.0, "trend": 4.439033, "fair_value": 3.622134, "relative_strength": 0.886396, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.462972, 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"typical_volume": 425395.25, "trend": 5.304, "fair_value": 7.670905, "relative_strength": -46.573655, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.374686, "energy": 46.861597, "activity_lines": [ 3.872667, 3.863455, 4.085429, 4.521828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.95, "volume": 244222, "typical_volume": 389803.4, "trend": 5.165667, "fair_value": 7.665974, "relative_strength": -44.27892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.355246, "energy": 37.539598, "activity_lines": [ 3.919333, 3.871091, 4.047095, 4.434473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.1, "volume": 196446, "typical_volume": 370279.1, "trend": 5.022333, "fair_value": 7.661749, "relative_strength": -42.340948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.383511, "energy": 29.948508, "activity_lines": [ 3.990667, 3.911273, 4.030333, 4.36572 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.35, "volume": 221163, "typical_volume": 342409.75, "trend": 4.889, "fair_value": 7.660019, "relative_strength": -39.687609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.643468, "energy": 17.913977, "activity_lines": [ 4.113333, 3.996364, 4.04319, 4.322344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }