{ "ticker": { "uuid": "336825eb-aff5-4bb9-b278-d04199e7fb40", "symbol": "NSLNISP", "name": "NMDC Steel Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.428, "architecture_energy": 14.189, "architecture_maturity": 46.119, "architecture_confidence": 76.32, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.94, "rotation_up": 18.52, "upward_expansion": 44.82, "deceleration": 86.6, "rotation_down": 32.57, "downward_expansion": 25.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.987334, 43.632909, 43.954286, 42.97314 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 43.84, "trend_reference": 41.947333, "distance_from_trend": 0.04512, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.640128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.060037, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.296529, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.055622, "excess_performance": 0.099332, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04512, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020443, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.060037, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002496, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042965, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06268, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055622, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.181459, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17677783, "relative_activity": 0.862886, "balance": 3.181459, "dry_up": 0.66854, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066904, "annualized_volatility": 0.376032, "from_high_reference": -0.15121, "from_low_reference": 0.328082 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.947333, "fair_value_reference": 46.640128, "structural_low": 33.009998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.02741, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011305, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.005254, "worst_return": -0.04946, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.013705, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.001902, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.013705, "worst_return": -0.013705, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.007665, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.05938, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.007665, "worst_return": -0.007665, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05179, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029965, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026269, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.167213, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144297, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082981, 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11.259488, "energy": 17.522298, "activity_lines": [ 42.720667, 43.799818, 43.846572, 42.846473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.84, "volume": 17677783, "typical_volume": 20486807.4, "trend": 41.947333, "fair_value": 46.640128, "relative_strength": 4.296529, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.427685, "energy": 14.188784, "activity_lines": [ 42.987334, 43.632909, 43.954286, 42.97314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }