{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33735949-e523-4902-8b77-d22d73d9bd39", "symbol": "FPH", "name": "Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.624, "architecture_energy": 59.309, "architecture_maturity": 9.68, "architecture_confidence": 79.455, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.3, "rotation_up": 70.6, "upward_expansion": 85.78, "deceleration": 48.09, "rotation_down": 12.72, "downward_expansion": 10.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.642, 40.020575, 38.550013, 38.19877 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 41.700001, "trend_reference": 38.047284, "distance_from_trend": 0.096005, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.749077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273318, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.818201, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.045113, "excess_performance": 0.016839, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096005, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016034, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273318, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15669, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.068182, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123251, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045113, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.519197, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1428355, "relative_activity": 0.797766, "balance": 1.519197, "dry_up": 0.932486, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050953, "annualized_volatility": 0.323702, "from_high_reference": -0.034499, "from_low_reference": 0.30789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.047284, "fair_value_reference": 32.749077, "structural_low": 31.883408, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.016495, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.011619, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.159638, "worst_return": -0.112593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.013201, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.003233, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.172485, "worst_return": -0.258514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055225, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.040767, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.355507, "worst_return": -0.168576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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37.840617, "fair_value": 32.517246, "relative_strength": 1.58655, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.023994, "energy": 52.523616, "activity_lines": [ 39.695999, 39.076524, 37.832332, 37.772268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.689999, "volume": 1768074, "typical_volume": 1887524.1, "trend": 37.938617, "fair_value": 32.627472, "relative_strength": 5.305906, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.239086, "energy": 60.852274, "activity_lines": [ 40.075332, 39.519306, 38.147244, 37.9561 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.700001, "volume": 1428355, "typical_volume": 1790442.7, "trend": 38.047284, "fair_value": 32.749077, "relative_strength": 6.818201, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.624495, "energy": 59.309055, "activity_lines": [ 40.642, 40.020575, 38.550013, 38.19877 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }