{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3374b482-ef9c-46bc-9626-e25d69bf5de8", "symbol": "BYJ", "name": "Phillip SGX APAC Dividend Leaders REIT ETF", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.622, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.825, "architecture_energy": 30.236, "architecture_maturity": 12.809, "architecture_confidence": 51.012, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.83, "rotation_up": 58.37, "upward_expansion": 52.98, "deceleration": 28.7, "rotation_down": 20.11, "downward_expansion": 11.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.134667, 1.127658, 1.121093, 1.120511 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.14, "trend_reference": 1.128584, "distance_from_trend": 0.010115, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.055883, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.079665, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.535715, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031436, "excess_performance": -0.186271, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010115, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012994, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.079665, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009845, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165357, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06062, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031436, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.254778, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3932, "relative_activity": 0.119474, "balance": 9.254778, "dry_up": 2.154244, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026123, "annualized_volatility": 0.140577, "from_high_reference": -0.050791, "from_low_reference": 0.129832 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.128584, "fair_value_reference": 1.055883, "structural_low": 1.009, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0025, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.03011, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.039201, "worst_return": -0.090767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.024017, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.022739, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057542, "worst_return": -0.083786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.062332, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.044377, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.129413, "worst_return": -0.089729, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.028597, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.109685, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.071385, "worst_return": -0.106096, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052276, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047664, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004386, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.086783, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.003023, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043058, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019253, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020469, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.954419, "volume": 1270, "typical_volume": 13699.55, "trend": 1.011636, "fair_value": 1.089695, "relative_strength": -3.61292, "stage": 4, 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.061728, "energy": 8.607389, "activity_lines": [ 1.121453, 1.117105, 1.113443, 1.11956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.127, "volume": 188141, "typical_volume": 38829.2, "trend": 1.131048, "fair_value": 1.05387, "relative_strength": -16.705553, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.870269, "energy": 10.013941, "activity_lines": [ 1.123892, 1.119222, 1.115184, 1.119208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.141, "volume": 17152, "typical_volume": 33598.45, "trend": 1.129751, "fair_value": 1.054837, "relative_strength": -15.843798, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.487356, "energy": 22.052842, "activity_lines": [ 1.130209, 1.123631, 1.11831, 1.11985 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.14, "volume": 3932, "typical_volume": 32910.85, "trend": 1.128584, "fair_value": 1.055883, "relative_strength": -16.535715, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.825306, "energy": 30.235615, "activity_lines": [ 1.134667, 1.127658, 1.121093, 1.120511 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }