{ "ticker": { "uuid": "337c1f50-4097-415e-aa72-80ce144a4e8d", "symbol": "300684", "name": "Jones Tech PLC", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.315, "architecture_energy": 26.552, "architecture_maturity": 16.882, "architecture_confidence": 47.748, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.45, "rotation_up": 19.99, "upward_expansion": 19.81, "deceleration": 61.14, "rotation_down": 59.77, "downward_expansion": 40.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.970001, 53.823455, 55.639781, 55.334863 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 51.700001, "trend_reference": 54.721818, "distance_from_trend": -0.055221, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.062509, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.778924, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.524585, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.071432, "excess_performance": -0.078832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055221, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073887, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.778924, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.517631, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035246, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200999, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071432, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.801759, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77212096, "relative_activity": 1.208753, "balance": 0.801759, "dry_up": 1.505283, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.19005, "annualized_volatility": 0.720197, "from_high_reference": -0.307249, "from_low_reference": 0.770092 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.721818, "fair_value_reference": 29.062509, "structural_low": 41.259998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.030539, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.001784, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 0.361133, "worst_return": -0.146178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.019164, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028826, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.65, "worst_return": -0.262448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069246, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.045878, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.967226, "worst_return": -0.178756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.247689, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.318093, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.361589, "worst_return": -0.206837, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115116, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.274121, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.199711, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098527, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003997, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.250682, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.260627, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105301, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027264, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.198777, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013958, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.114224, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 17.877903, "volume": 32350112, "typical_volume": 97496214.1, "trend": 18.442315, "fair_value": 17.868139, "relative_strength": 10.341854, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.400002, "volume": 93395277, "typical_volume": 61154307.0, "trend": 54.868299, "fair_value": 28.701845, "relative_strength": -2.56325, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.199871, "energy": 4.062395, "activity_lines": [ 56.017334, 57.252825, 57.209266, 56.268955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.310001, "volume": 89864327, "typical_volume": 63009535.1, "trend": 54.620137, "fair_value": 28.850129, "relative_strength": -8.143811, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.461892, "energy": 29.209853, "activity_lines": [ 51.125334, 54.591819, 56.001555, 55.523258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.700001, "volume": 77212096, "typical_volume": 63877476.2, "trend": 54.721818, "fair_value": 29.062509, "relative_strength": 3.524585, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.315428, "energy": 26.551519, "activity_lines": [ 49.970001, 53.823455, 55.639781, 55.334863 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }