{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33855dde-116b-4ca3-aa3e-28a51098da80", "symbol": "XWIS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Industrials UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.192, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.361, "architecture_energy": 37.279, "architecture_maturity": 56.004, "architecture_confidence": 50.701, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.38, "rotation_up": 44.44, "upward_expansion": 70.53, "deceleration": 68.83, "rotation_down": 25.27, "downward_expansion": 8.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.383667, 65.310637, 64.648833, 63.989774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 66.779999, "trend_reference": 63.196833, "distance_from_trend": 0.056699, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.332883, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.30092, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.635122, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.074757, "excess_performance": 0.023521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056699, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043423, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.30092, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037749, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016351, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016936, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074757, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.652032, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8995, "relative_activity": 2.00779, "balance": 0.652032, "dry_up": 1.117677, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028221, "annualized_volatility": 0.152779, "from_high_reference": -0.1262, "from_low_reference": 0.233925 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.196833, "fair_value_reference": 51.332883, "structural_low": 57.970001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.008058, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003181, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.373065, "worst_return": -0.275497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.019955, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.008698, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.071003, "worst_return": -0.183482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038519, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.045201, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.088021, "worst_return": -0.156215, "sufficient": true }, { 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63.937166, 63.333279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 63.84, "volume": 2367, "typical_volume": 4647.45, "trend": 62.461833, "fair_value": 51.052199, "relative_strength": -0.066922, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.219019, "energy": 38.549046, "activity_lines": [ 65.017666, 64.808272, 63.996928, 63.436322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.495003, "volume": 2084, "typical_volume": 4121.95, "trend": 62.736833, "fair_value": 51.140667, "relative_strength": 1.222455, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.926765, "energy": 36.294108, "activity_lines": [ 65.056667, 64.991909, 64.220071, 63.632011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.470001, "volume": 6583, "typical_volume": 4223.6, "trend": 62.967833, "fair_value": 51.228743, "relative_strength": -1.549813, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.43783, "energy": 21.633253, "activity_lines": [ 64.797001, 64.953091, 64.332905, 63.743828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.779999, "volume": 8995, "typical_volume": 4480.05, "trend": 63.196833, "fair_value": 51.332883, "relative_strength": 1.635122, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.360765, "energy": 37.279257, "activity_lines": [ 65.383667, 65.310637, 64.648833, 63.989774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }