{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33861b26-f48c-4021-97c2-84496cf77001", "symbol": "2852", "name": "The First Insurance Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.369, "architecture_energy": 50.528, "architecture_maturity": 26.121, "architecture_confidence": 73.875, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.13, "rotation_up": 58.11, "upward_expansion": 83.28, "deceleration": 61.32, "rotation_down": 22.88, "downward_expansion": 7.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.863334, 26.759072, 26.2711, 25.898555 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 26.950001, "trend_reference": 25.610961, "distance_from_trend": 0.052284, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.549056, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.250635, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.080574, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.047831, "excess_performance": -0.393541, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052284, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006254, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.250635, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032749, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.250806, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084203, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047831, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.265469, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 866173, "relative_activity": 0.407205, "balance": 2.265469, "dry_up": 0.768626, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025647, "annualized_volatility": 0.090125, "from_high_reference": -0.007366, "from_low_reference": 0.14176 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.610961, "fair_value_reference": 21.549056, "structural_low": 23.697955, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.006896, "positive_rate": 0.575758, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.00275, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.243176, "worst_return": -0.090379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.033784, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.064822, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.262887, "worst_return": -0.056047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.130031, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.102354, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.207887, "worst_return": -0.028829, 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"volume": 1366306, "typical_volume": 2409426.0, "trend": 25.530358, "fair_value": 21.287832, "relative_strength": -24.492687, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.41202, "energy": 55.835382, "activity_lines": [ 26.643333, 26.467213, 25.859865, 25.632016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.0, "volume": 2571226, "typical_volume": 2241723.9, "trend": 25.557358, "fair_value": 21.376381, "relative_strength": -21.81498, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.900024, "energy": 54.068052, "activity_lines": [ 26.77, 26.605827, 26.015121, 25.726831 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.85, "volume": 1736129, "typical_volume": 2163177.6, "trend": 25.580925, "fair_value": 21.461999, "relative_strength": -23.484663, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.297429, "energy": 48.084003, "activity_lines": [ 26.8, 26.687052, 26.144622, 25.810227 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 26.950001, "volume": 866173, "typical_volume": 2127119.25, "trend": 25.610961, "fair_value": 21.549056, "relative_strength": -25.080574, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.369049, "energy": 50.527735, "activity_lines": [ 26.863334, 26.759072, 26.2711, 25.898555 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }