{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3387b4bd-a08c-4765-97a7-069dfa6c5473", "symbol": "5FX", "name": "New Wave Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.009, "architecture_energy": 17.713, "architecture_maturity": 44.369, "architecture_confidence": 67.891, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.22, "rotation_up": 43.71, "upward_expansion": 26.98, "deceleration": 55.7, "rotation_down": 24.48, "downward_expansion": 26.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.004133, 0.003927, 0.0042, 0.004174 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.005, "trend_reference": 0.004067, "distance_from_trend": 0.229508, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.003878, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.289256, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.928301, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.666667, "excess_performance": 0.511832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.229508, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033898, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.289256, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064766, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049283, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147156, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.666667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.363115, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 489900, "relative_activity": 0.145156, "balance": 1.363115, "dry_up": 0.121215, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138462, "annualized_volatility": 1.375968, "from_high_reference": -0.166667, "from_low_reference": 0.666667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.004067, "fair_value_reference": 0.003878, "structural_low": 0.003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.081736, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.225, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.24658, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.111111, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.254999, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.111111, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.193037, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.006, "volume": 42600, "typical_volume": 1177960.0, "trend": 0.006967, "fair_value": 0.008122, "relative_strength": -19.394524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.892589, "energy": 35.223848, "activity_lines": [ 0.005933, 0.006218, 0.00659, 0.006778 ] }, { "date": 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0.003923, "relative_strength": -36.148902, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.764866, "energy": 55.518261, "activity_lines": [ 0.003533, 0.004055, 0.004281, 0.004178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.003, "volume": 140000, "typical_volume": 3421675.0, "trend": 0.004, "fair_value": 0.00391, "relative_strength": -36.026587, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.628327, "energy": 64.721684, "activity_lines": [ 0.003267, 0.0038, 0.004162, 0.004114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.004, "volume": 6300, "typical_volume": 3336990.0, "trend": 0.004033, "fair_value": 0.003897, "relative_strength": -15.480803, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.740335, "energy": 48.67529, "activity_lines": [ 0.003467, 0.003764, 0.004143, 0.004114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.004, "volume": 1000200, "typical_volume": 3383000.0, "trend": 0.004033, "fair_value": 0.003885, "relative_strength": -15.600323, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.489448, "energy": 25.84055, "activity_lines": [ 0.003667, 0.003745, 0.004124, 0.004112 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.005, "volume": 489900, "typical_volume": 3374990.0, "trend": 0.004067, "fair_value": 0.003878, "relative_strength": 4.928301, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.008567, "energy": 17.712753, "activity_lines": [ 0.004133, 0.003927, 0.0042, 0.004174 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }