{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3390222f-1d2b-4707-af8f-160fa209c7a1", "symbol": "SIEB", "name": "Siebert Financial Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.62, "architecture_energy": 38.66, "architecture_maturity": 71.61, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.12, "rotation_up": 21.21, "upward_expansion": 4.13, "deceleration": 54.26, "rotation_down": 55.27, "downward_expansion": 79.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.66, 1.692182, 1.743762, 1.815548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.67, "trend_reference": 1.997, "distance_from_trend": -0.163746, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.500851, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.332227, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.021581, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.379182, "excess_performance": -0.566636, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.163746, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207644, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.332227, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024787, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.420216, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119282, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.379182, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.47596, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62034, "relative_activity": 0.277575, "balance": 0.47596, "dry_up": 0.370536, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122879, "annualized_volatility": 0.43812, "from_high_reference": -0.59759, "from_low_reference": 0.091503 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.997, "fair_value_reference": 2.500851, "structural_low": 1.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.021208, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.026007, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.279412, "worst_return": -0.225694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.028902, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.04357, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.511236, "worst_return": -0.344737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0403, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000817, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.606742, "worst_return": -0.455263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125461, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.202532, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.277064, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062323, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.230576, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07326, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.331148, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.171662, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.138514, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.240909, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.02, "volume": 66755, "typical_volume": 845496.05, "trend": 2.1414, "fair_value": 2.815308, "relative_strength": -7.257915, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"energy": 44.295241, "activity_lines": [ 1.678, 1.732, 1.77419, 1.871548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.63, "volume": 75974, "typical_volume": 231694.0, "trend": 2.051333, "fair_value": 2.504953, "relative_strength": -41.827037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.999296, "energy": 43.665022, "activity_lines": [ 1.66, 1.707091, 1.755905, 1.840151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.67, "volume": 62034, "typical_volume": 223485.85, "trend": 1.997, "fair_value": 2.500851, "relative_strength": -42.021581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.620108, "energy": 38.660072, "activity_lines": [ 1.66, 1.692182, 1.743762, 1.815548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }