{ "ticker": { "uuid": "339288f9-14cb-46d9-946c-abb6fc8213c2", "symbol": "002510", "name": "Tianjin Motor Dies Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.83, "architecture_energy": 54.694, "architecture_maturity": 57.493, "architecture_confidence": 93.302, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 23.41, "upward_expansion": 9.02, "deceleration": 60.07, "rotation_down": 56.47, "downward_expansion": 82.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.484, 5.561273, 5.996048, 6.350301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.62, "trend_reference": 6.825, "distance_from_trend": -0.176557, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.512724, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.01946, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.229166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.218359, "excess_performance": -0.225759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176557, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056582, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.01946, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280249, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218359, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544429, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92024041, "relative_activity": 0.910568, "balance": 0.544429, "dry_up": 0.940406, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093211, "annualized_volatility": 0.405209, "from_high_reference": -0.381738, "from_low_reference": 0.117296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.825, "fair_value_reference": 5.512724, "structural_low": 5.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.020026, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.022945, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.150943, "worst_return": -0.147854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.04065, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.034068, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.19086, "worst_return": -0.057516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005291, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122366, "worst_return": -0.03, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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109244923.0, "trend": 6.937, "fair_value": 5.489531, "relative_strength": -23.345102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.431173, "energy": 77.340558, "activity_lines": [ 5.36, 5.654364, 6.156571, 6.516688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.62, "volume": 93272127, "typical_volume": 103265012.05, "trend": 6.882, "fair_value": 5.501001, "relative_strength": -17.602292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.243117, "energy": 62.203414, "activity_lines": [ 5.427333, 5.592727, 6.07119, 6.43172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.62, "volume": 92024041, "typical_volume": 101062198.85, "trend": 6.825, "fair_value": 5.512724, "relative_strength": -21.229166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.829788, "energy": 54.693866, "activity_lines": [ 5.484, 5.561273, 5.996048, 6.350301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }