{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3394cb6f-61a2-404f-ba92-f9711cd13000", "symbol": "LCUJ", "name": "Amundi Core MSCI Japan UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.498, "architecture_energy": 34.678, "architecture_maturity": 57.298, "architecture_confidence": 87.105, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.45, "rotation_up": 39.52, "upward_expansion": 65.84, "deceleration": 85.42, "rotation_down": 26.68, "downward_expansion": 15.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.5772, 22.5958, 22.256569, 21.855019 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.18, "trend_reference": 21.3784, "distance_from_trend": 0.084272, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.487516, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.325517, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.046956, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.114798, "excess_performance": 0.050159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084272, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057441, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.325517, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043001, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.06047, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06978, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114798, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.630025, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 425817, "relative_activity": 0.997946, "balance": 4.630025, "dry_up": 0.878967, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032621, "annualized_volatility": 0.19406, "from_high_reference": -0.005193, "from_low_reference": 0.315289 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.3784, "fair_value_reference": 17.487516, "structural_low": 19.232, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.033645, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.009675, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.086606, "worst_return": -0.041524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004436, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003402, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.156833, "worst_return": -0.065129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.014637, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031949, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109585, "worst_return": -0.084796, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011333, 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"2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037244, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000402, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079126, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015149, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027797, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065978, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 22.944, "volume": 659024, "typical_volume": 587443.55, "trend": 20.95585, "fair_value": 17.278955, "relative_strength": 11.989358, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.220768, "energy": 81.480785, "activity_lines": [ 22.856, 22.559654, 21.900007, 21.518834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.860001, "volume": 303437, "typical_volume": 533433.25, "trend": 21.05225, "fair_value": 17.328266, "relative_strength": 7.192156, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.037184, "energy": 48.587813, "activity_lines": [ 22.552467, 22.480382, 21.944471, 21.577167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.365999, "volume": 418616, "typical_volume": 454070.1, "trend": 21.16445, "fair_value": 17.377862, "relative_strength": 8.031021, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.626168, "energy": 37.682815, "activity_lines": [ 22.435866, 22.487654, 22.035983, 21.661925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.249001, "volume": 352327, "typical_volume": 440423.8, "trend": 21.271583, "fair_value": 17.429487, "relative_strength": 4.887247, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.401958, "energy": 27.284792, "activity_lines": [ 22.3378, 22.460982, 22.106938, 21.731896 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.18, "volume": 425817, "typical_volume": 426693.25, "trend": 21.3784, "fair_value": 17.487516, "relative_strength": 6.046956, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.497777, "energy": 34.677718, "activity_lines": [ 22.5772, 22.5958, 22.256569, 21.855019 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }