{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33961250-9fab-4ba6-992c-2a64de6dd900", "symbol": "DDS", "name": "Dillard's, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.918, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.478, "architecture_energy": 11.374, "architecture_maturity": 20.255, "architecture_confidence": 53.802, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.04, "rotation_up": 35.5, "upward_expansion": 25.32, "deceleration": 39.52, "rotation_down": 22.35, "downward_expansion": 50.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 582.893645, 572.474616, 572.956542, 578.107869 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 612.14, "trend_reference": 590.721689, "distance_from_trend": 0.036258, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 438.792046, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.395057, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.84836, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.081093, "excess_performance": -0.206717, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036258, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03471, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.395057, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035515, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078484, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009538, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.081093, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.075256, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 564354, "relative_activity": 1.028252, "balance": 2.075256, "dry_up": 1.070818, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080307, "annualized_volatility": 0.325362, "from_high_reference": -0.137809, "from_low_reference": 0.401468 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 590.721689, "fair_value_reference": 438.792046, "structural_low": 502.632298, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.082619, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.001961, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.247794, "worst_return": -0.15832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.244065, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.192057, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.434263, "worst_return": -0.147498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.453114, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.387669, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.736451, "worst_return": 0.125967, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032099, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033457, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.272518, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027257, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09203, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -8.163561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.348613, "energy": 20.499887, "activity_lines": [ 564.006942, 565.059357, 569.2099, 576.873576 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 612.14, "volume": 564354, "typical_volume": 548847.85, "trend": 590.721689, "fair_value": 438.792046, "relative_strength": -7.84836, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.477999, "energy": 11.373602, "activity_lines": [ 582.893645, 572.474616, 572.956542, 578.107869 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }