{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3396dca9-2411-48b1-ab33-c95bc65de5e5", "symbol": "AQN", "name": "Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.78, "architecture_energy": 20.797, "architecture_maturity": 58.317, "architecture_confidence": 80.931, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.4, "rotation_up": 29.93, "upward_expansion": 20.26, "deceleration": 43.52, "rotation_down": 31.84, "downward_expansion": 58.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.846, 5.816831, 5.874772, 5.977375 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.74, "trend_reference": 6.123446, "distance_from_trend": -0.062619, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.444301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.054314, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.347911, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.1062, "excess_performance": -0.231824, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062619, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00885, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.054314, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029197, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143479, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049016, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1062, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.856925, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17126469, "relative_activity": 0.828338, "balance": 0.856925, "dry_up": 0.880683, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052119, "annualized_volatility": 0.304948, "from_high_reference": -0.183566, "from_low_reference": 0.106835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.123446, "fair_value_reference": 5.444301, "structural_low": 5.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.003466, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.001948, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.115616, "worst_return": -0.270913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.022816, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.061224, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.177659, "worst_return": -0.298709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.052047, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.134073, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.183015, "worst_return": -0.440017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091216, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.058693, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060669, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072097, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.114777, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088812, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"direction": -57.776026, "energy": 43.783137, "activity_lines": [ 5.731553, 5.778955, 5.905873, 6.026519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.1, "volume": 19290531, "typical_volume": 21412032.4, "trend": 6.150078, "fair_value": 5.453909, "relative_strength": -5.330661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.552798, "energy": 25.985319, "activity_lines": [ 5.848264, 5.833772, 5.914782, 6.023372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.84, "volume": 20832857, "typical_volume": 21334072.65, "trend": 6.142882, "fair_value": 5.448655, "relative_strength": -10.057795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.498443, "energy": 17.707218, "activity_lines": [ 5.86, 5.833806, 5.89853, 6.003367 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.74, "volume": 17126469, "typical_volume": 20675706.2, "trend": 6.123446, "fair_value": 5.444301, "relative_strength": -14.347911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.780118, "energy": 20.797078, "activity_lines": [ 5.846, 5.816831, 5.874772, 5.977375 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }